UFC Vegas 83: ‘Song Vs Gutierrez’ Predictions

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 83 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Dec. 9, 2023) on ESPN+ from inside the promotion’s APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a bantamweight main event between Top 15 title hopefuls Yadong Song and Chris Gutierrez, a five-round headliner with major title implications for early 2024 and beyond.

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 205-pound scrap between light heavyweight bruisers Anthony Smith and Khalil Rountree Jr., check out Patrick Stumberg’s breakdowns for the UFC Vegas 83 preliminary card by clicking here and here. For the latest “Song vs. Gutierrez” odds and betting props courtesy of our fiscal friends over at DraftKings go here. For the rest of the UFC Vegas 83 main card predictions click here.

135 lbs.: Yadong Song vs. Chris Gutierrez

Yadong “Kung Fu Kid” Song

Record: 20-7-1, 1 NC | Age: 26 | Betting line: -380
Wins: 9 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 8 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 4 DEC, 1 DQ
Height: 5’8“ | Reach: 67” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.61 | Striking accuracy: 42%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.77 | Striking Defense: 59%
Takedown Average: 0.53 (55% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 72%
Current Ranking: No. 7 | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Ricky Simon

Chris “El Guapo” Gutierrez

Record: 20-5-2 | Age: 32 | Betting line: +300
Wins: 9 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 10 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 5’9“ | Reach: 67” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.04 | Striking accuracy: 57%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.73 | Striking Defense: 65%
Takedown Average: 0.34 (37% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 71%
Current Ranking: No. 14 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Heili Alateng

Yadong Song already has 12 fights inside the Octagon, half of which resulted in $50,000 post-fight performance bonuses, making it easy to forget the “Kung Fu Kid” just turned 26 a few days back and is probably another year or two from his fighting prime. In those 12 trips to the cage, Song has compiled nine wins against two losses and one draw, with his most recent defeat coming by way of doctor stoppage against Cory Sandhagen at UFC Vegas 60. The defeat did little to rattle his confidence, as the Tianjin native came firing back with a violent technical knockout win over Ricky Simon at UFC Vegas 72. Song is at his best when he’s able to move forward and drop bombs but probably fights a better fight as a defensive counterpuncher. His offensive wrestling is good enough to warrant caution with incoming leg kicks but his takedown defense remains a liability, having been dragged to the floor 14 times over the last three years.

“Every time I will say I will knock him out quickly,” Yadong said at the UFC Vegas 83 media day. “I know a little bit about him before I took this fight. Definitely, he’s a striker, has good footwork and switches stance. Nothing special.”

Chris Gutierrez may not look like anything special to Song but it’s hard to deny his success in UFC, dating back to his late 2018 debut. “El Guapo” has registered eight wins and two losses with one draw, not unlike Song, and is perhaps best known for being the final nail in the career coffin of Frankie Edgar. Gutierrez is coming off a commanding performance over Heili Alateng at UFC Vegas 81 but the shadow of his decision loss to Pedro Munhoz at UFC Kansas City looms large over his upcoming fight against Song, who may present many of the same problems. Like the “Kung Fu Kid,” the 32 year-old Gutierrez favors striking and gets taken down far easier than he should at this level, but I don’t expect the power-punching Song to be doing much (if any) wrestling. That will give “El Guapo” an opportunity to work those nasty leg kicks, which obliterated Vince Morales at UFC Vegas 1 back in early 2020.

“It’s a good matchup,” Gutierrez said at the UFC Vegas 83 media day. “It’s a tough task on both ends. I’m well prepared. I have a good team behind me, a good support system. And I believe I have the tools to win. Reality is, he’s going to try to punch a hole through my face. I’m going to try to kick a hole through his face. So, that’s the reality. Two good strikers meet and two different styles clashing. I look at it as a beautiful thing.”

It may not be that beautiful for Gutierrez on fight night. Song is younger, more explosive, and far more dangerous on the feet. “El Guapo” could very well turn the tide halfway through the fight by playing the long game, chopping down his opponent’s legs and then capitalizing on his immobilized foe. I just have a sneaking suspicion it won’t last long enough for that gameplan to play out. Song is going to abandon his typical slow start and come out firing, which should bring the show to a close somewhere in the opening frame.

Prediction: Song def. Gutierrez by knockout

205 lbs.: Anthony Smith vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.

Anthony “Lionheart” Smith

Record: 37-18 | Age: 35 | Betting line: +195
Wins: 20 KO/TKO, 14 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 10 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 6’4“ | Reach: 76” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.16 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.45 | Striking Defense: 46%
Takedown Average: 0.52 (28% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 48%
Current Ranking: No. 8 | Last fight: Split decision win over Ryan Spann

Khalil “War Horse” Rountree Jr.

Record: 12-5, 1 NC | Age: 33 | Betting line: -235
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 6’1“ | Reach: 76” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.73 | Striking accuracy: 38%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.16 | Striking Defense: 50%
Takedown Average: 0.00 (0% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 56%
Current Ranking: No. 11 | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Chris Daukaus

Anthony Smith has 18 losses, 10 of which have come by knockout, and is 5-5 across his last 10, yet somehow remains ranked at No. 8 in the official 205-pound rankings. That should give you an idea of how weak the division has become over the years, which is why former middleweight Alex Pereira was able to capture the crown in just two fights at light heavyweight. Smith is coming off a split decision victory against Ryan Spann, his second “W” over “Superman” within the last two years. Prior to that, “Lionheart” was annihilated by Magomed Ankalaev and decisioned by Johnny Walker in a three-round snoozer. As far as his skillset, it’s fair to say that Smith is good at everything and great at nothing, except maybe longevity, since the former 185-pounder will mark his eighth anniversary with UFC in just a few weeks.

“I like doing crazy sh*t,” Smith said at the UFC Vegas 83 media day. “Taking a fight with Khalil Rountree on like 10 days’ notice is pretty crazy. They wanted me to fight him in Austin, but there were like six days or something like that. It was really short notice. I said I would take the fight but I couldn’t make 205 that fast. So I asked for a catchweight. Everyone was good with the catchweight, but Dana (White) isn’t a huge fan of catchweights. So he asked if I would make 205 this weekend, so he gave me an extra weekend to make the weight class. I said yeah.”

Khalil Rountree Jr. has been something of a mixed bag over the last few years. Once a promising young prospect on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23, the now 35 year-old “War Horse” struggled to find his purpose in both life and MMA, flirting with retirement in late 2019 while posting a ho-hum record of 4-4 in the years following his Octagon debut. I’m not sure what changed in late 2021, but whatever it was completely transformed Rountree from middling journeyman to bona fide killer, with four straight wins and three violent finishes. None of those performances were enough to impress middleweight mental patient Sean Strickland, but the rest of the 205-pound weight class continues to have nightmares after watching this video of Rountree pounding on Karl Roberson like Detective Lieutenant Mike Rogo pounded on the hull of the Poseidon.

“It did excite me a little bit more only because I’ve had past conversations about this potential matchup, maybe one or two fights from now or something like that,” Rountree told reporters about losing his original opponent, Azamat Murzakanov, only to gain Smith a few days later. “So, the name has definitely come up in the past as far as just what to aim for and reaching for a title shot.”

This is a winnable fight for Smith, who has superior wrestling and ground skills. In 14 appearances under the UFC banner, Rountree has scored a grand total of zero takedowns with zero attempts. Ion Cutelaba made it look fairly easy and that’s a gameplan Smith will need to replicate on Saturday night. I think this fight boils down to which version of Rountree shows up because the one who murdered Chris Daukaus on ESPN will likely send “Lionheart” to the phantom zone. The bookies would support that prediction but I think Smith is too experienced to make the mistake of getting sucked into a bar fight. Instead, expect to see the former title challenger play possum, weather an early blitzkrieg, then lock up a fight-ending tap.

Prediction: Smith def. Rountree by submission

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 83 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 83 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN+ main card start time at 10 p.m. ET.

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