UFC 296 Odds, Under Dogs And Best Bets!

Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC 296, which is set to hit T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, this weekend (Sat., Dec. 16, 2023), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!

The tumultuous Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) 2023 campaign comes to an end this Saturday (Dec. 16, 2023) when champions Leon Edwards and Alexandre Pantoja defend their respective Welterweight and Flyweight titles against lethal challengers Colby Covington and Brandon Royval.

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, will also host Shavkat Rakhmonov’s crossroads clash with Stephen Thompson, Paddy Pimblett’s much-maligned battle with Tony Ferguson, and Ian Garry’s pay-per-view (PPV) opener opposite Vicente Luque.

Procrastinated too much on your Christmas shopping? Let’s get you enough spare cash to pay for expedited shipping …

What Went Wrong at UFC Vegas 83?

Rayanne Amanda and Jun Yong Park

I pride myself on admitting when I made bad reads and these two absolutely performed below my expectations. That said, I cannot see an argument for why they didn’t win the first and third rounds of their respective fights. Going by the scoring criteria — and especially the recent increased focus on effective strikes over control — they won. I’m not alone in this assessment, either.

Stephanie Egger

She was definitely the biggest underachiever of the lot thanks to being completely helpless in the clinch, but even then, she did the only meaningful damage of the last two rounds.

What Went Right?

Kevin Jousset, Tatsuro Taira, Hyun Sung Park, Khalil Rountree Jr., Nasrat Haqparast and Song Yadong

Clean, decisive wins are all I can ask for. Well done.

What makes me so frustrated about last week’s outcome is that my only goal is to break even over the year, and if those three decisions had gone the way the majority of media observers had it, I’d have accomplished that.

Instead, I’ll have to bring out the big guns if I want to make up the difference. Let’s get reckless.

UFC 296 Odds For The Under Card:

Bryce Mitchell (-225) vs. Josh Emmett (+185)

I like Mitchell here, even with the short notice. Emmett doesn’t have the jab or footwork to keep Mitchell off of him, nor the overwhelming takedown defense required to shut down Mitchell’s wrestling once “Thug Nasty” gets inside. There is, of course, the threat of Emmett’s one-shot power, but he hasn’t scored a finish since stopping the dilapidated Mirsad Bektic in 2019. I can live with -225.

Irene Aldana (-205) vs. Karol Rosa (+170)

Try a small flyer on Rosa. Aldana has looked terribly mediocre in back-to-back fights, needing a miracle upkick to get past Macy Chiasson and flat-out not showing up at all against Amanda Nunes. Though Rosa’s had her share of issues lately, she has the takedowns to recreate Chiasson’s and Nunes’ wrestling success.

Cody Garbrandt (-198) vs. Brian Kelleher (+164)

Flyer on Kelleher as well. He’s durable, aggressive and has enough pop in his hands to crack Garbrandt’s increasingly shaky chin. Garbrandt fought not to lose against an incredibly passive Trevin Jones; in other words, he may be able to hold down Kelleher for awhile, but I’m not sure I trust him to keep his composure when Kelleher gets right back to chasing him down. Just keep it small, as Kelleher has been out-wrestled on multiple occasions.

Casey O’Neill (-192) vs. Ariane Lipski (+160)

Hammer that O’Neill line. She’s way too good a grappler for Lipski to handle and she throws enough volume to hold her own on the feet as well.

Dustin Jacoby (-270) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+220)

Jacoby seems like a relatively safe investment. Menifield’s strong 5-1-1 run is a bit flimsier in reality than on paper. Indeed, Jimmy Crute is the only man he beat who’s still in the organization and Jacoby’s striking blows “The Brute’s” out of the water. Plus, the threat of Menifield’s power is offset by the fact that Jacoby survived 15 minutes each with Khalil Rountree and Azamat Murzakanov. Slap “The Hanyak” in a parlay.

Tagir Ulanbekov (-170) vs. Cody Durden (+142)

Try a smidge on Durden. He’s racked up three upsets in his last four wins, is ostensibly a good enough wrestler to match Ulanbekov in the Dagestani’s wheelhouse, and should have an edge on the feet as well. Ulanbekov has had surprisingly mixed success against fellow grapplers in UFC, so a small Durden bet makes sense.

Andre Fili (-175) vs. Lucas Almeida (+145)

Fili has a significant reach advantage, a much better ground game, and has never lost twice in a row. Good enough for me.

Martin Buday (-148) vs. Shamil Gaziev (+124)

Buday wins if he can survive the first round. Gaziev might hit like a truck, but he’s had severe cardio issues in the past and looks thoroughly out-classed in terms of grappling. I acknowledge that Buday is slow and easy to hit, but by my reckoning, he’s got enough going his way to earn a look.

Randy Brown (-270) vs. Muslim Salikhov (+220)

Brown really underwhelmed me against Wellington Turman last time out, and though Salikhov is well past his best, “The King of Kung Fu” is still dangerous enough to merit steering clear.

UFC 296 Odds For The Main Card:

Leon Edwards (-166) vs. Colby Covington (+140)

As much as I dislike Covington as a person, I completely respect his abilities as a fighter. Just using Edwards > Usman > Covington to justify a bet isn’t fair. That said, it has to be noted that Covington’s best win was over an undersized Rafael dos Anjos, who had a semi-valid argument for taking three rounds from “Chaos.” Next to Usman, Edwards’ clinch is the strongest Covington’s ever faced, and beating aged, gunshy versions of Robbie Lawler and Jorge Masvidal in no way prepares Covington for Edwards’ striking.

Add all that to nearly two years of rust on Covington’s part and you get an emphatic, “AND STILL!”

Alexandre Pantoja (-185) vs. Brandon Royval (+154)

All the reasons Pantoja won the first fight are still true today: he’s functionally impossible to finish and has far better jiu-jitsu fundamentals than Royval. Meanwhile, Royval is someone who uses chaos to throw opponents off their games and set up opportunities for out-of-nowhere finishes, but Pantoja — who’s slugged it out with the likes of Deiveson Figueiredo and Manel Kape — might be the most unflappable man in the division. In other words, bet the farm on “The Cannibal.”

Shavkat Rakhmonov (-650) vs. Stephen Thompson (+470)

Too wide for my taste. Skip it.

Paddy Pimblett (-298) vs. Tony Ferguson (+240)

The flippant argument for betting on Pimblett is that if he hands Ferguson his seventh consecutive loss, the money will soothe the pain. The more serious one is that Paddy’s got the gas tank to match Ferguson’s pace, the volume to outwork him, and the chin to absorb any stray shots. It would be one thing if Ferguson was a takedown threat, which Pimblett historically struggles with, but we’re years past that point. Use Pimblett to beef up parlays.

Ian Garry (-345) vs. Vicente Luque (+275)

I’m second-guessing myself, which is probably a good sign to stay away from a fight with such lopsided odds. It really boils down to how much Luque has left in the tank and I don’t want to deal with that kind of ambiguity.

UFC 296 Best Bets:

• Single bet — Karol Rosa: Bet $40 to make $68
• Single bet — Brian Kelleher: Bet $50 to make $82
• Single bet — Cody Durden: Bet $50 to make $71
• Parlay — Casey O’Neill and Alexandre Pantoja: Bet $100 to make $134.29
• Parlay — Dustin Jacoby and Leon Edwards: Bet $100 to make $119.58
• Parlay — Bryce Mitchell and Andre Fili: Bet $80 to make $101.58
• Parlay — Martin Buday and Paddy Pimblett: Bet $70 to make $86.65

There’s definitely worse way than UFC 296 to close out a mess of a year. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

Initial Investment For 2023: $600
April Bailout: $400
August Bailout: $500
Current Total: $1,234.55

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 296 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 296: “Edwards vs. Covington” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.