UFC 296 Predictions, Preview, And Analysis

Colby tries again.

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will close out its 2023 fight campaign with the UFC 296 pay-per-view (PPV) event, headlined by the welterweight title fight pitting reigning division kingpin, Leon Edwards, against longtime title contender, Colby Covington. The action gets underway this Sat. night (Dec. 16, 2023) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and also features the flyweight championship showdown between newly-crowned 125-pound champion Alexandre Pantoja and red-hot “Raw Dog” Brandon Royval.

Before we break down the five-fight PPV main card, which also features a lightweight collision between former interim lightweight champion Tony Ferguson and streaking scouser Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett, be sure to take a closer look at our comprehensive preview and predictions for this weekend’s preliminary undercard action on ESPN2 and ESPN+ by clicking here and here. The latest UFC 296 odds and a complete betting guide for the entire “Edwards vs. Covington” PPV lineup can be located here.

Let’s take a look at what the PPV main card has in store for us this weekend in the “Sin City.”

170 lbs.: UFC Welterweight Champion Leon “Rocky” Edwards (21-3, 1 NC) vs. Colby “Chaos” Covington (17-3)

Colby Covington is once again challenging for the undisputed welterweight title, probably because the promotion doesn’t think it can sell Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad and that’s what makes prize fighting different than sports. In sports, wins and losses get you to the finals, regardless of bankability, whereas prize fighting is all about who can generate the biggest prize. Outside of “Remember the Name,” there’s a lot to be excited about in the 170-pound weight class with Shavkat Rakhmonov, Ian Garry, and Jack Della Maddalena slowly working their way up the welterweight ranks.

But that’s a conversation for a different column.

The most impressive thing Covington has done during his rise to the No. 3 spot in the welterweight rankings is lose to Kamaru Usman (twice). I’m not putting much stock in a wrestling clinic against Jorge Masvidal, who’s been taken down 17 times across his last four fights. In addition, the “Gamebred” victory was all the way back in March 2022 and coming into the UFC 296 headliner, “Chaos” has zero wins over anyone currently ranked in the welterweight Top 15. For a fighter who turns 36 in just a few weeks, there isn’t much of a case to be made for his ascension to the 170-pound throne. He has great wrestling and championship conditioning, which has gotten him far in MMA, but is it enough to overthrow Edwards?

Like Covington, the 32 year-old Edwards bobbed and weaved his way to the head of the class, escaping some of the more formidable names in the division like Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson, among others. Getting a title shot based on his victory over Nate Diaz drew its own share of criticism, but former champion Kamaru Usman was running out of fresh faces and “Rocky” had an impressive win streak. What separates the Englishman from his stateside rival is the fact that he defeated Usman at UFC 278, then defended his title in their UFC 286 rematch. The most important statistic of those fights was the wrestling, because Edwards was outwrestled 9-1 in takedowns and won anyway.

That’s why I can’t pick Covington simply because of his wrestling.

“Chaos” has serviceable (and somewhat unremarkable) striking but has proven to excel on the feet when he applies constant pressure, like he did against Robbie Lawler in their summer 2019 affair. That might have rattled an earlier, more passive version of Edwards, but when Usman employed a similar strategy at UFC 286, a refined, more confident “Rocky” was able to counter and in many ways neutralize that attack. That to me is the story of the UFC 296 headliner. Edwards has continued to look better in every fight, demonstrating an improved competency in each successive battle while Covington, despite his physical gifts, has pretty much stayed the same. With his athletic prime seemingly behind him, at least from what I saw in his clock-punching victory over Masvidal, I think he comes up short for a third and final time. He might even get clipped on a sloppy takedown and end up getting finished.

Prediction: Edwards def. Covington by technical knockout

---

125 lbs.: UFC Flyweight Champion Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja (26-5) vs. Brandon “Raw Dog” Royval (15-6)

Any time you have a rematch between two of the best fighters in the world, or any two fighters for that matter, the first and most obvious question is, what’s changed since their first go-round? In the case of Alexandre Pantoja, quite a bit. The Brazilian “Cannibal” submitted Royval at UFC Vegas 34 then went on to win his next two fights, the most recent of which resulted in a split-decision victory over Brandon Moreno. Not only did that mark his second win over “The Assassin Baby,” it also sent him back to Rio de Janeiro with the 125-pound strap. Now sitting alone atop the flyweight division, Pantoja will make his first title defense against a familiar foe.

Royval, two years younger than Pantoja at 31, rebounded from his “Cannibal” loss to capture three straight wins. After edging out Rogerio Bontorin at UFC Vegas 46, the Coloradan went on to score violent, first-round finishes over Matt Schnell (UFC 274) and Matheus Nicolau (UFC Kansas City), good enough to land him at No. 2 in the 125-pound rankings. The fact that “Raw Dog” was able to bounce back so emphatically demonstrates his growth as a fighter, both physically and mentally. Schnell and Nicolau are both Top 10 fighters and let’s not forget Royval also holds a victory over No. 4-ranked Kai Kara France at UFC 253.

Flyweight title fights seem to be all about the rematches and ordinarily I would complain about seeing the same faces over and over, but how can you not look forward to an action-packed fight between two aggressive maniacs like Pantoja and Royval? I think all the same reasons “The Cannibal” prevailed in their first fight will present themselves here, though he will remain in grave danger any time “Raw Dog” is afforded the room to swing for the fences. Assuming the champ can survive the phone booth blitz, expect him to control the grappling exchanges enough to get this fight to the floor, where a submission is soon to follow.

Prediction: Pantoja def. Royval by submission

---

170 lbs.: Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (17-6-1) vs. Shavkat “Nomad” Rakhmonov (17-0)

Stephen Thompson has been a fun and overtly friendly addition to the welterweight division, in much the same way Rich Franklin and his aw-shucks personality brought some much-needed levity to the 185-pound shark tank. Thompson is an exceptional striker with a good command of range inside the cage. We got to see “Wonderboy” tee off against Kevin Holland after “Trailblazer” mangled his mitt at UFC Orlando, a five-round shooting gallery that reminded fans of just how dynamic Thompson can be on the feet. Unfortunately, it was not enough — at least in my eyes — to erase his dismal performances against Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, where he was pushed around and taken down en route to a pair of unanimous decision losses. The former kickboxer can’t wrestle, struggles to defend takedowns, and has no submission game from his back (or anywhere else, for that matter). Thompson also turns 41 in a couple of weeks and that’s not a great age to be facing a killer like Shavkat Rakhmonov.

Rakhmonov has 17 wins and finished all 17 opponents, which is a crazy statistic in combat sports, akin to striking out 17 straight batters in baseball, or draining 17 straight three-pointers in the NBA. You can argue that most of his opponents prior to joining the Endeavor-owned promotion were not UFC caliber — outside of Jun Yong Park, who was signed in summer 2019 — but all 12 of those opponents had (and maintained) winning records. Rakhmonov’s 5-0 mark inside the Octagon has been comprised of battle-tested veterans, most notably Max Griffin and Neil Magny, who were unable to escape the curse of the “Nomad.” Whether or not Thompson is able to end that impressive streak largely depends on his ability to stay upright, or at the very minimum, keep his distance inside the cage.

Thompson is most successful when he’s afforded the real estate needed to work. Rakhmonov has not done enough in his UFC career to be compared to Muhammad or Burns (yet), but if we’re being honest, neither “Remember the Name” nor “Durinho” did anything spectacular to neutralize Thompson. It was a fairly routine, nuts-and-bolts approach to grappling. We’ve already seen that from the 29 year-old Kazakhstani in previous fights, it just remains to be seen if “Nomad” wants to stand up and prove he can hang and bang with the best of them. That might be considered a perilous gameplan if Thompson had one-punch knockout power; but he doesn’t, so Rakhmonov simply needs to avoid the feet of fury en route to manhandling the former welterweight title challenger. A submission seems like the safer pick, but I think the much larger Rakhmonov implements a more aggressive striking attack and crumples “Wonderboy” against the cage.

Prediction: Rakhmonov def. Thompson by technical knockout

---

155 lbs.: Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson (25-9) vs. Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett (20-3)

In his YouTube preview of UFC 296, former middleweight champion Michael Bisping said Tony Ferguson is wrapping up a “long, glittering, legendary career,” a sentiment that is likely shared by most MMA fans after watching “El Cucuy” compete inside the Octagon for more than a decade. He’s certainly been one of the most exciting fighters to compete in the stacked lightweight division, racking up nearly a dozen post-fight bonuses along the way. But legendary? I would argue that Ferguson was a great fighter, but perhaps not one of the greatest, losing to Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliveira, and Beneil Dariush over the last few years. It’s also worth pointing out that during his athletic prime, Ferguson never faced the likes of Dustin Poirier, Conor McGregor, or Khabib Nurmagomedov, so we don’t really know where his ceiling was and thanks to the snuff film directed by Justin Gaethje at UFC 249, we’ll never know.

Ferguson is currently mired in a dreadful six-fight losing streak, and it’s gotten to the point where it’s uncomfortable to watch. It reminds me of the promotion’s dogged attempt to send BJ Penn off into the sunset with a win. Instead, it allowed “The Prodigy” to drop seven straight and fade into oblivion, where he now enjoys a life of parking lot brawls and deranged political takes. What made Ferguson so dangerous in his prime was his unorthodox offense, which worked because it was used to complement the fundamentals he already mastered as opposed to just going out there and winging it from fight-to-fight. I’m not sure this version of “El Cucuy” knows how to recapture that formula, evidenced by debased performances that led to him getting finished across his last three fights.

That’s not to suggest that Pimblett has been lighting the world on fire. “The Baddy” has four wins under the UFC banner and his first two opponents, Luigi Vendramini and Rodrigo Vargas, have since been released by the promotion. The judges gave Pimblett an early Christmas present with a decision victory over Jared Gordon and that leaves his submission win over Jordan Leavitt. Am I supposed to break out the party horns because he tea-bagged “The Monkey King?” Like Ferguson, the 28 year-old Pimblett — 11 years younger than his UFC 296 foe — is a high-octane fighter with a porous defense, relying on his youth and conditioning to bail him out of trouble when the shit hits the proverbial fan. The scouser can get away with that kind of reckless abandon in the first half of his career, but sooner or later that jeopardous gameplan will catch up to him, as it did “El Cucuy.”

Expect Ferguson to look like his old self at the start of this contest, and I’m sure the cageside commentators will bust a nut every time the former interim champion lands something of merit. But once Ferguson starts to accumulate any sort of damage his body will likely betray him, shutting down and leaving him susceptible to “The Baddy’s” relentless offense. Unless Pimblett leaves his chin on a silver platter and Ferguson manages to send one straight up the pipe, I expect “El Cucuy” to crumble midway through the fight.

Prediction: Pimblett def. Ferguson by technical knockout

---

170 lbs.: Vicente “The Silent Assassin” Luque (22-9-1) vs. Ian “The Future” Garry (13-0)

Note: Luque vs. Garry has been canceled due to illness. As a result, the promotion has promoted the featherweight showdown between Josh Emmett and Bryce Mitchell to the PPV main card. Below is the prediction from our own Patrick Stumberg, who analyzed this fight while it was still a part of the UFC 296 “Prelims” card.

145 lbs.: Josh “The Fighting Falmer” Emmett (18-4) vs. Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell (16-1)

A five-fight win streak earned Josh Emmett (18-4) a shot at interim gold against Yair Rodriguez, who handed Emmett his first-ever submission loss late in the second round (watch highlights). He returned four months later to battle Ilia Topuria in a UFC Jacksonville main event that saw Topuria brutalize Emmett for 25 minutes.

He stands four inches shorter than Bryce Mitchell (16-1) at 5’6.”

“Thug Nasty” put his 1-1 The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 27 run behind him to win his first six in the Octagon. Though he ran afoul of the aforementioned Topuria in Dec. 2022, he grinded his way back into the win column nine months later by edging out Dan Ige.

He steps in for the injured Giga Chikadze on just 10 days’ notice.

Though the short notice will definitely work in Emmett’s favor because of how cardio-intensive Mitchell’s style is, I don’t like the matchup for him at all. He doesn’t have the jab or footwork to keep Mitchell at a distance and lacks the wrestling to just big brother him the way Topuria did. Emmett needs to land that death punch of his to win, but between Mitchell’s toughness and the fact that Emmett hasn’t scored a knockout in 4.5 years, that doesn’t seem likely.

Emmett turns 39 in a few months and doesn’t have enough technical depth to his style to make up for his declining explosiveness. In the end, expect Mitchell to out-hustle him and grind his way to another ugly decision win.

Prediction: Mitchell via unanimous decision

---

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 296 fight card right RIGHT HERE, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 6:30 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining undercard balance on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 296: “Edwards vs. Covington” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here. For the updated and finalized UFC 296 fight card and ESPN+ lineup click here.