UFC 296 Clash: Edwards Vs. Covington!

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight talents Leon Edwards and Colby Covington will clash TONIGHT (Sat., Dec. 16, 2023) at UFC 296 inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Edwards appears to be coming into his own while already holding the championship crown. His improvement between the two Kamaru Usman title fights was hugely impressive, as he went from a Hail Mary KO to near shut-out win over an all-time great Welterweight. Now, he looks to move beyond Usman and start really tightening his grip on the 170-pound ranks.

Covington’s name is forever tied to Usman’s legacy, the greatest challenger to the Nigerian’s title … until “Rocky” came along. This will likely be Covington’s final opportunity at UFC gold, so it’s really now-or-never for the controversial wrestler to attain a championship legacy of his own.

Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:

Leon Edwards

Record: 21-3 (1)
Key Victories: Kamaru Usman (UFC 286, UFC 278), Rafael dos Anjos (UFC on ESPN 4), Donald Cerrone (UFC Fight Night 132), Vicente Luque (UFC Fight Night 107), Gunnar Nelson (UFC Fight Night 147), Albert Tumenov (UFC 204), Nate Diaz (UFC 263)
Key Losses: Kamaru Usman (UFC on FOX 17)
Keys to Victory: Edwards has a well-deserved reputation as a sniper in the cage. He’s got an unusually high level of composure, and he’s constantly setting traps for his opponent both on the feet and on the floor.

Everyone knows what Covington is going to try to do here. He wants to pressure Edwards, get him to the fence, and fatigue him with an onslaught off punches and takedowns. In Edwards’ last bout, he diffused a similar strategy with excellent lateral movement and smart hand-fighting along the fence.

Keep both of those in the game plan!

One of the other biggest factors here is Edwards’ clinch striking. Covington uses the clinch often to transition between his shots and strikes, but that’s an area where Edwards is far more volatile. Covington might have numbers on his side generally, but Edwards lands with far more impact.

“Rocky” should be looking to destroy Covington’s mid-section with knees and slicing his face up with elbows. Jorge Masvidal actually scored nicely in the clinch, but he just couldn’t keep it up across five rounds. Between that and Usman’s proven body punching success against Covington, it really seems like an attritional strategy would be best for the English champion.

Colby Covington

Record: 17-3
Key Wins: Jorge Masvidal (UFC 272), Tyron Woodley (UFC Vegas 11), Robbie Lawler (UFC on ESPN 5), Rafael dos Anjos (UFC 225), Demian Maia (UFC Fight Night 119), Dong Hyun Kim (UFC Fight Night 111), Bryan Barberena (UFC on FOX 22)
Key Losses: Kamaru Usman (UFC 268, UFC 245), Warlley Alves (UFC 194)
Keys to Victory: Covington is the personification of pace. His stand up is always awkward, yet he’s managed to rock durable opponents like Lawler, Woodley, and Masvidal because he dragged them down to his level by forcing a grueling pace.

His chain wrestling is also downright spectacular.

For reasons illustrated above, I don’t like the idea of Covington hanging out in the clinch. Fortunately, he has an excellent high-crotch takedown chain, and that’s a much safer avenue for “Chaos” to push the wrestling and Edwards’ gas tank.

When the shot isn’t happening, it would be better for Covington to break off back to the pocket rather than hang in the clinch. Edwards isn’t a great boxer; he’s all about the kicking range and the clinch. If Covington can throw volume in the pocket and wrestle effectively from the lower body, he can prevent the champion from utilizing the best parts of his game.

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Bottom Line

The Welterweight division is moving forward.

Ignore all the goofy super fight talk from both men: there are lots of contenders at Welterweight! Belal Muhammad does indeed deserve a title shot, and Shavkat Rakhmonov could leave UFC 296 with a very strong argument himself. It’s time for that upcoming generation to start getting title opportunities.

Nevertheless, Edwards has a chance to dispatch Usman and now Covington, the two premier from that era of Welterweights. That would be an incredible start to his championship reign!

As mentioned in the intro, this is probably Covington’s last opportunity at UFC gold. “Chaos” is 35 years of age, and he doesn’t have a fighting style that’s likely to age gracefully. Covington is a great talent, but runs the risk of ending up as a perennial also-ran unless he’s successful tonight.

At UFC 296, Leon Edwards and Colby Covington will go to war with gold on the line. Which man has his hand raised?

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 296 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ ”Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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