New Year, same Apex?

This weekend (Sat., Jan. 13, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) remains inside the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 84. I don’t believe the card on paper is blowing anyone’s socks off, but at least the top two fights of the evening are potentially title eliminators. Equally important, the fights leading up to the top of the card seem likely to deliver stoppages inside a couple rounds.

Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the co-main event:

Photo by Todd Lussier/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Lightweight: Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez

Best Win for Jim Miller? Charles Oliveira For Benitez? Jason Knight
Current Streak: Both men won their last bout
X-Factor: Miller has a lot of miles on him
How these two match up: A pair of Lightweight veterans who seldom see the judges will throw down.

Miller is awesome. He deserves his UFC 300 showcase, and the storyline of his previous experiences at UFC 100 and 200 is equally great. The veteran still packs a serious punch, as the Southpaw tends to win really quickly even at 40 years of age. Though he cannot match Miller’s UFC longevity — who can?!? — Benitez has been on the roster for nearly a decade now himself. The Southpaw is a nasty kicker, able to put foes down with a single clean connection to the liver.

The leftie vs. leftie match up makes this interesting. On one hand, Benitez cannot take his favorite left kick to the body … but he could destroy the lead calf instead? I would expect a kick-heavy game plan from Benitez one way or another, as he’s likely not interested in trading punches or shucking off takedown attempts from “A-10.”

The question is whether or not he can maintain that distance without getting cracked or taken down. Miller’s left hand has been like a piston lately, and if Benitez is forced to start kicking at the leg rather than his usual targets, that likely offsets his timing a bit and grants Miller the opening needed to drop a bomb early in the fight.

Club and sub or just club repeatedly? Hmm …

Prediction: Miller via knockout

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Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images

Bantamweight: Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista

Best Win for Simon? Merab Dvalishvili For Batista? Da’Mon Blackshear
Current Streak: Simon lost his last bout, while Bautista has won five straight
X-Factor: Simon was beaten badly and stopped in his last fight
How these two match up: Bantamweights never fail to deliver, especially when we’re talking about the upper tier of the division.

Simon’s title aspirations took a bit of a beating in his last bout, as Song Yadong unceremoniously shut down his takedowns and boxed him up. Still, Simon is a cardio machine with power in his hands and a relentless wrestling game — that’s a tough match up for most!

Bautista hasn’t been fighting elite competition, but he’s been winning and doing so impressively. Bautista is something of a jack-of-all-trades, an athlete with the rounded skills necessary to take the fight into his opponent’s weaker area and seek the finish there.

Both men often rely on the takedown to get the job done, so the wrestling match up is really key here. I lean towards Simon as the superior takedown artist, but I’m not sure it’s enough of a gap to allow a true control on the canvas. Still, given Simon’s high rate of takedowns and the level of competition he’s managed to drag to the floor, I’m thinking he racks up just enough control time to sway the judges.

When the kickboxing is competitive, a takedown here and there tends to sway the fight.

Prediction: Simon via decision

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

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Middleweight: Phil Hawes vs. Brunno Ferreira

Best Win for Hawes? Nassourdine Imavov For Ferreira? Gregory Rodrigues
Current Streak: Hawes has lost two in a row, while Ferreira suffered his first professional defeat last time out
X-Factor: Hawes’ durability is questionable
How these two match up: Someone is probably getting slept.

Hawes, unfortunately, has a habit of getting knocked out after doing well early on. He’s a great athlete with quality kickboxing form and a strong wrestling background, yet he cannot help the fact that his off switch is a touch more sensitive than average amongst the top tier of 185-pound athletes.

Ferreira, meanwhile, is no technical marvel. “Hulk” does, however, hit extremely hard, and he’s the type of knockout artist that fully believes one of his haymakers is going to connect. He swings with confidence, which makes him all the more dangerous.

It’s hard to argue with 10 stoppages in 10 wins.

This is an annoying fight to predict. On one hand, Hawes is better just about everywhere. On the other, he tends to get knocked out suddenly, and Ferreira makes it a habit to knock out folks with a rare regularity.

Rarely do I pick the fighter that pretty much has to win by finish. It goes against my analytical nature. Yet, I cannot argue the trend here: Hawes is facing a dangerous, younger man and must be perfect for 15 minutes if he’s to emerge unscathed.

He probably gets hit at some point.

Prediction: Ferreira via knockout

Final ‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2023: 51-38-1 (2)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 84 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 84: “Ankalaev vs. Walker 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.