UFC Vegas 84: ‘Ankalaev Vs. Walker 2’ Predictions

Annnnnd we’re BACK!

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 84 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Jan. 13, 2024) on ESPN+ from inside the promotion’s APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a light heavyweight main event — and UFC 294 rematch — between Top 10 title hopefuls Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker, a five-round headliner with major title implications for early 2024 and beyond.

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 125-pound scrap (and UFC Vegas 21 rematch) between flyweight bruisers Matheus Nicolau and Manel Kape, check out Patrick Stumberg’s breakdowns for the UFC Vegas 84 preliminary card by clicking here and here. For the latest “Ankalaev vs. Walker 2” odds and betting props courtesy of our fiscal friends over at DraftKings go here. For the rest of the UFC Vegas 84 main card predictions click here.

205 lbs.: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker

Magomed Ankalaev

Record: 17-1-1, 1 NC | Age: 31 | Betting line: -550
Wins: 9 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 8 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 75” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.56 | Striking accuracy: 52%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.20 | Striking Defense: 58%
Takedown Average: 1.07 (31% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 86%
Current Ranking: No. 3 | Last fight: No Contest against Johnny Walker

Johnny Walker

Record: 21-7, 1 NC | Age: 31 | Betting line: +410
Wins: 16 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 6’6“ | Reach: 82” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.87 | Striking accuracy: 56%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.64 | Striking Defense: 45%
Takedown Average: 0.50 (100% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 57%
Current Ranking: No. 7 | Last fight: No Contest against Magomed Ankalaev

After a wonky first-round “No Contest” at UFC 294, we’re going to try to figure this one out once and for all…

Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker are completely different fighters, stylistically speaking, but their UFC trajectories have been eerily similar after making their respective debuts in 2018. Ankalaev stumbled out of the gate, getting submitted by Paul Craig at UFC London before rattling off five straight wins, three of which scored the Russian striker $50,000 performance bonuses. Then his next five bouts resulted in three forgettable decisions and one butt-ugly draw opposite former 205-pound titleholder Jan Blachowicz, a fight so bad it caused UFC CEO Dana White to “zone out” somewhere in round three. What happened to the bonus-winning bruiser that had light heavyweights running for cover? Perhaps it was the step up in competition or maybe Ankalaev was struggling to stay dialed in. Either way, he went from a being a lock for the next 205-pound title shot to fighting a hot-and-cold opponent ranked four spots below him in the official light heavyweight rankings.

“I’m not looking for just coming out there and having my hand raised at the end of the fight,” Ankalaev said at the UFC Vegas 84 media day (watch it here). “What I want to do is I want to make sure that I get there, I make a statement and the fight is going to be over way before the final bell. I believe that 2024 is my year, and by the end of this year, you’ll see that the strap is around my waist. As the managers are telling me, it’s basically if I win this fight, there is nobody else who deserves the title run more than I do.”

Like Ankalaev, the 31 year-old Walker jumped out to a red-hot start, bagging three straight wins and three straight performance bonuses. His highlight reel was impressive enough to keep then-champion Jon Jones looking over his shoulder. Then came a brutal knockout loss to Corey Anderson, followed by a couple of stinkers opposite Nikita Krylov and Thiago Santos. Getting stopped by Jamahal Hill did more than just eliminate him from the 205-pound title chase, it also changed his style of fighting — which some may argue was for the worse — but you can’t argue with the results. After his “Sweet Dreams” nap, the Brazilian is 3-0 with two finishes and back in the division Top 10, though I don’t think anyone will be nominating his Anthony Smith fight for the UFC hall of fame.

“We know his pattern and what he likes to do, so we simulate these for many months, many weeks while sparring,” Walker said at the UFC Vegas 84 media day (watch it here). “I’m ready for whatever he tries to do, if he takes me down, if he tries striking. I know his pattern and what he’s going to try to use against me. Nothing has changed much. Just prepare for the worst. I’m ready. Maybe I’ll put him down because you never saw him when he back is on the floor, his behavior. I’m pretty sure if any of my good shots land, he’s going to sleep. If I get his back, I’m going to make him sleep, too. I’m going to choke him. I always try to push and get the best of myself and to finish the fight as well. I don’t like the judges deciding the fight for me and too much hard work for someone to maybe make a wrong decision. I want to make sure I have the fight in my hands so I’m going to do my best to finish the fight.”

Walker now fights like Ankalaev: measured, patient, technical … but the Russian does it better, which is why the Brazilian needs to channel the Johnny Walker of 2019, complete with spinning back fists, jumping knees, flying elbows; anything and everything to keep Ankalaev off rhythm and scrambling to adjust. If not, Ankalaev will out-strike him from bell-to-bell, take him down at will, and beat him up on the ground. Unless Ankalaev has suffered a mid-career collapse, it’s hard to pick against him. Outside of the height and reach, he’s the superior fighter in just about every category.

Prediction: Ankalaev def. Walker by technical knockout

125 lbs.: Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape

Matheus Nicolau

Record: 19-3-1 | Age: 31 | Betting line: +220
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 9 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’6“ | Reach: 66” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.66 | Striking accuracy: 53%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.14 | Striking Defense: 66%
Takedown Average: 1.48 (45% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 93%
Current Ranking: No. 5 | Last fight: Knockout loss to Brandon Royval

Manel “Starboy” Kape

Record: 19-6 | Age: 30 | Betting line: -270
Wins: 11 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 5’5“ | Reach: 68” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.12 | Striking accuracy: 54%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.51 | Striking Defense: 59%
Takedown Average: 0.65 (37% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 77%
Current Ranking: No. 6 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Felipe dos Santos

Like the UFC Vegas 84 main event between Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker, this weekend’s co-headliner is also a rematch between two hungry title contenders. Matheus Nicolau and Manel Kape first went to war at UFC Vegas 21 back in early 2021, with the Brazilian capturing a close split decision victory. At the time, the betting line opened at -115 apiece and despite Nicolau’s victory, “Starboy” is now a sizable betting favorite for their 125-pound rematch. I would assume those numbers are based on Kape’s recent run, which garnered four straight wins — two by first-round knockout — while Nicolau is coming off a brutal knockout loss to Brandon Royval at UFC Kansas City last April. Personally, I don’t think his misstep against “Raw Dog” (such a dreadful nickname) negates the success that came before it. Nicolau is 6-1 dating back to 2018, which includes his second-round knockout win over Matt Schnell at UFC Orlando roughly one year back.

“We always try to bring some new things,” Nicolau said at the UFC Vegas 84 media day (watch it here). “I’m always training a lot, since my last fight in the beginning of last year I had a long time to train. Thank God I had no injuries, so I could focus a lot on training. That was my No. 1 focus ever, to train to get better. So for sure I’ll try to bring something new, and I also want to make the weapons that I already have even better, even sharper. I’m ready for the hard 15 minutes. This is a high-level matchup so you have to be ready to fight a very hard 15 minutes, but I think the core of the martial arts is to finish the fight, so I’ll keep that in mind, but I’m in no rush to do that. I just want to keep focused and do my best performance I’ve ever done inside the Octagon.”

Kape is finally starting to look like the fighter UFC thought it had when it signed him from Rizin back in early 2021. “Starboy” has yet to crack the Top 5 at 125 pounds, mostly because of the rough start he had at the beginning of his UFC career, but Kape remains a dangerous puncher with quick, explosive hands. No doubt those weapons have Nicolau fans worried, considering what happened against Royval. The question I have heading into this fight is whether or not Kape can correct the mistakes he made against the Brazilian in their first fight. If “Starboy” wastes too much time waiting for his opening, Nicolau could steal another decision on the judges’ scorecards. With a potential title shot within reach, I have to imagine Kape is going to come out of the gate firing on all cylinders.

“My goal is to be a champion,” Kape said at the UFC Vegas 84 media day (watch it here). “I believe that beating Matheus Nicolau, I’ll get the title shot. This is my goal. It’s obvious. Of course it’s going to be dependent on how I win, and that’s going to dictate everything. I’m looking for the knockout or to finish him in the first round, definitely. Right now, [Alexandre Pantoja’s] got the belt so he’s going to play dirty to win, and not perform because he’s not going to expose himself, but good for him. I’m here to perform. I’m going to be me all the time — aggressive. Hopefully, I’m going to face him this year.”

I hate to be overly-simplistic with my prediction, but Kape is hot right now and has all the momentum while Nicolau is looking to rebound. A first-round finish would not surprise me.

Prediction: Kape def. Nicolau by knockout

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 84 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 84 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN+ main card start time at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 84 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Ankalaev vs. Walker 2” fight card and ESPN+ line up click here.