UFC 298 Predictions, Preview, And Analysis

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to the pay-per-view (PPV) market with the UFC 298 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, headlined by the featherweight title fight pitting reigning division kingpin Alexander Volkanovski against undefeated 145-pound title contender Ilia Topuria. The action gets underway this Sat. night (Feb. 17, 2024) inside Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif., and also features a middleweight co-main event between former 185-pound champion Robert Whittaker and fan favorite Brazilian bruiser Paulo Costa, a three-round contest with serious title implications for late 2024 and beyond.

Before we break down the five-fight PPV main card, which also features the return of welterweight phenom Ian Garry, booked to throw hands against venerable 170-pound striker Geoff Neal, be sure to take a closer look at our comprehensive preview and predictions for this weekend’s preliminary undercard action on ESPN and ESPN+ by clicking here and here. The latest UFC 298 odds and a complete betting guide for the entire “Volkanovski vs. Topuria” PPV lineup can be located here.

Let’s take a look at what the PPV main card has in store for us this weekend in Anaheim.

145 lbs.: UFC Featherweight Champion Alex “The Great” Volkanovski (26-3) vs. Ilia “El Matador” Topuria (14-0)

Alexander Volkanovski is making his return to featherweight after getting smashed by Islam Makhachev at UFC 294, a fight the Aussie took on just 12 days’ notice. Volkanovski hastily cut 25 pounds of weight to battle a massive lightweight who is is not only division champion, but also the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world. And yet somehow the prevailing narrative heading into UFC 298 suggests Volkanovski is either old, washed, exposed, or simply coming back too soon. The whole “what have you done for me lately” attitude permeates all sports, MMA included, but I still struggle to understand why so many people are dismissing a perfect 13-0 record at 145 pounds, which includes five knockout finishes and victories over the likes of Max Holloway, Yair Rodriguez, and Brian Ortega, just to name a few.

What makes Volkanovski so dangerous is his versatility, as well as his output. “The Great” lands more than six significant strikes per minute with a 57-percent accuracy rate. He also averages nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes of action while stuffing 70-percent of incoming takedowns from his opponents. And oh by the way, Volkanovski — ranked No. 3 pound-for-pound behind heavyweight kingpin Jon Jones — took Makhachev to the limit at UFC 284, a five-round banger that multiple outlets (including this one) scored in favor of the Aussie.

Let’s also water down some of that Ilia Topuria Kool-Aid. To be fair, what we’ve seen thus far in his UFC career has been sensational. “El Matador” is a perfect 6-0 since crossing over from Brave FC back in late 2019 with four finishes. But is he good enough to become the first featherweight in UFC to defeat Volkanovski? Perhaps, but I’m not sure how we effectively build that case. Topuria scored a division title shot without having to fight Holloway, Rodriguez, or even Ortega. It’s easy to look like a world beater when you don’t have to beat the best in the world.

That’s no disrespect to Josh Emmett, who was pieced up by Topuria at UFC on ABC 5, but I don’t think anyone had the 38 year-old “Fighting Falmer” — ranked No. 5 at the time of their showdown — pegged as the future of the featherweight division. Topuria is hailed for his fluid boxing but he’s also a fantastic wrestler with stingy defense. Heading into this five-round title fight, “El Matador” will have a one-inch height advantage in exchange for two inches in reach, favoring the champion.

Topuria is eight years younger than Volkanovski and you can argue that he’s a more refined version of the champion, capable of winning the fight wherever it goes. As I mentioned earlier, all we have to prove (or disprove) that argument is six fights in UFC with only two of them coming against fighters currently ranked in the Top 15. That’s just not enough to have me predicting the demise of one of the best fighters in the game today and perhaps, when all is said and done, one of the greatest 145-pound champions of all time. Volkanovski is a proven commodity and will remain that way until a rival featherweight shows otherwise.

Prediction: Volkanovski def. Topuria by decision

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185 lbs.: Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker (24-7) vs. Paulo “The Eraser” Costa (14-2)

This fight has been booked and canceled so many times I will admit there is a part of me waiting for Paulo Costa to pull some sort of last-minute stunt and announce that his grandmother was abducted by aliens or something equally wacky. Assuming the Brazilian honors his agreement with Robert Whittaker, he may end up wishing he had, in fact, cooked up some excuse to bounce. When you strip away the “Secret Juice” shtick and the social media memes, what you’re left with is … not very impressive.

Costa has only competed once per calendar year dating back to 2017 and currently holds a whopping zero wins over anyone ranked in the Top 15. In fact, all six of his UFC victories have come over opponents who have since been cut, retired, or otherwise faded away. That said, one thing you can guarantee with “The Eraser” is an exciting fight, evidenced by his four post-fight performance bonuses, including his “Fight of the Night” honors opposite Luke Rockhold at UFC 278 last August in Salt Lake City.

Whittaker was upset by Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 290 last July in Las Vegas, which marks the first time “The Reaper” has been defeated by a middleweight not named Israel Adesanya. That loss has become more forgiving over time, as “Stillknocks” went on to capture the 185-pound title at UFC 297. Still, it’s worth pointing out that Whittaker dropped the first round against the South African slugger before getting stopped in the second, and the Aussie is usually the fighter in control of the standup.

Perhaps Du Plessis was just a bad matchup or maybe Whittaker is starting to fall apart, which would not be a complete surprise when you consider some of the wars he’s been a part of over the years (see Romero, Yoel). His performance against Costa is likely to answer that question because skill-for-skill, this is a fight the former champ should win, and win decisively. It may also depend on what version of Costa shows up. I’m pretty sure the disinterested middleweight who phoned it in against Marvin Vettori at UFC Vegas 41 doesn’t have a chance this weekend in Anaheim.

Both combatants are competent wrestlers but I expect all three rounds to play out on the feet. Whittaker remains the superior boxer from a technical standpoint and can’t let Costa bully him into the fence or drag him into a reckless bar fight. For all his shenanigans, the Brazilian is a high-volume striker with surprising accuracy and can easily end this fight by way of knockout. Instead, I expect Whittaker — one of the best defensive strikers in the division — to stick and move his way to a sweep on the judges’ scorecards.

Prediction: Whittaker def. Costa by decision

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170 lbs.: Ian “The Future” Garry (13-0) vs. Geoff “Hands of Steel” Neal (15-5)

Undefeated welterweight phenom Ian Garry has managed to work his way into the Top 10 of the welterweight division, holding down the roof at No. 10. That placement has a lot to do with his dominant decision victory over veteran gatekeeper Neil Magny at UFC 292, a stellar performance that was somewhat marred by an ugly buildup involving child abuse and whatever other dirt “The Future” could dig up to score some extra press. Garry was subsequently booked against Vicente Luque for UFC 296, the latest stop on his welterweight journeyman world tour, but later withdrew after contracting pneumonia.

In a bizarre set of circumstances, Garry called into the UFC 296 pre-fight show to cough his way through an interview and validate his illness before getting rebooked against Geoff Neal, sending Luque on to a different opponent. I have a feeling there was more to that story but it’s spilt milk under the bridge, or whatever combination of idioms best fit the dissolution of that drama. I’m not sure this fight does anything for Garry and it almost feels like Magny 2.0, with Neal presenting many of the same obstacles, elevated with the kind of knockout power that sent Luque to the shadow realm.

It’s hard to get a read on Neal, who graduated Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2017 and quickly jumped out to a perfect 5-0 start before dropping three of his next five. Sometimes he overperforms and beats top welterweights like Belal Muhammad, then subsequently underperforms and coughs up ho-hum decisions to grinders like Magny. The good news is, at least for the fans, is that “Handz of Steel” is willing to bring the heat, evidenced by consecutive post-fight performance bonuses, including his “Fight of the Night” against rising star Shavkat Rakhmonov. Neal is a competent wrestler with outstanding takedown defense but prefers to bang it out on the feet.

For tomorrow night’s contest, the Texan will give up four inches in height but hold a one-inch advantage in reach. I’m not sure that will matter much once the cage door closes in Anaheim, since Neal is more inclined to rely on power over finesse. He’s certainly got the grit (and the dynamite) to make this interesting, but with just three rounds to work, the much younger (and far more dynamic) Garry is likely to control the standup and make it look easy, something I expect to be reflected on all three scorecards.

Prediction: Garry def. Neal by decision

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135 lbs.: Henry “Triple C” Cejudo (16-3) vs. Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili (16-4)

Henry Cejudo is a former two-division UFC champion, holding titles at both flyweight and bantamweight. He also scored an Olympic gold medal in freestyle wrestling back in 2008. It’s hard to explain to people who are not well versed in the wrestling culture just how difficult a feat that is to achieve, or the mountain that each wrestler must climb just to get to the final match. That includes the round robin of killers at the US Olympic Team Trials, who are all gunning for the same spot. That makes Cejudo a very special athlete with a unique mindset and it’s no surprise that he found similar success in MMA.

Unfortunately, Cejudo is now 37 years of age with just one appearance over the last four years, a split decision loss to former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling at UFC 288 last May. That’s an important fight to consider when breaking down his return to the Octagon this weekend in Anaheim, because it marked the first time in 19 professional fights that Cejudo was outwrestled inside the cage. There’s been a lot of debate about folkstyle vs. freestyle in that matchup, as well as the merits of MMA wrestling, but I think the two biggest factors in that performance were age and mileage. Cejudo is not over the hill by any stretch of the imagination, but when you factor in the prolonged abuse of combat sports — which includes everything from head trauma to weight cutting — 37 becomes a far more concerning number.

Dvalishvili is certainly no spring chicken, turning 33 just last month. If the mouthy Georgian is still competing in his athletic prime, I think it would be fair to suggest he’s on the back end of it. That hasn’t stopped him from steamrolling his opponents, reaching double-digit takedowns an incredible four times throughout his UFC career. That includes the 11 he scored against former bantamweight champion Petr Yan at UFC Las Vegas in March 2023. Dvalishvili is just four takedowns away from moving into third place on the all-time list at 78 and already holds the No. 1 spot (all time) in the bantamweight division. He’s also sitting comfortably in the No. 2 slot for Total Strikes Landed with 1569.

“The Machine” averages an astounding 6.55 takedowns landed per 15 minutes of action and will no doubt rely on his bread-and-butter when the cage door closes this Sat. night in “The Golden State.” Working in his favor is the fact that his Cejudo fight is just 15 minutes long; meaning, he can stall, run out the clock, or otherwise neutralize “Triple C” in order to preserve a lead on the scorecards (assuming he can secure one). Dvalishvili will be working with a significant size advantage, which includes two inches in height and four inches in reach. Cejudo is a natural flyweight who eventually aged out of the 125-pound division, which means he’ll always be the smallest guy at 135 pounds. If that’s not enough to side with Dvalishvili, just remember “The Machine” is a longtime friend and training partner of Sterling, the last man to beat “Triple C.”

Prediction: Dvalishvili def. Cejudo by decision

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185 lbs.: Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez (11-2, 1 NC) vs. Roman Kopylov (12-2)

Anthony Hernandez first made headlines with his sensational 40-second knockout of Jordan Wright on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in June 2018, but those headlines had more to do with the bout being changed to a “No Contest” because Nevada State Athletic Commission (NSAC) still had that idiotic rule about marijuana (which has since been removed). That didn’t stop Hernandez from earning a UFC contract, but “Fluffy” stumbled in his Octagon debut, getting submitted by Markus Perez at UFC Fortaleza. In the years that followed, the Californian would put together a 5-1 record and is currently riding a four-fight win streak, having recently demolished Edmen Shahbazyan at UFC Vegas 73. That performance was good enough to land Hernandez a spot in the official middleweight rankings (see them here).

Roman Kopylov had a dreadful start to his UFC career, getting submitted by Karl Roberson in late 2019, then falling to Albert Duraev by decision in his rebound fight at UFC 267. I guess matchmakers liked what they saw and let the Russian bruiser stick around for a couple of more fights, which turned out to be the right choice. Since his 0-2 start, Kopylov is a perfect 4-0 with four straight knockout finishes and two post-fight performance bonuses. That includes his destruction of Josh Fremd at Noche UFC last fall in Las Vegas. Unlike most of his Russian brethren, Kopylov does not rely on his wrestling, scoring just two takedowns in six fights with UFC. I guess when you have 11 knockouts in 12 wins there’s no reason to start fooling around on the floor, especially considering what happened against Roberson at UFC Moscow.

Stopping Shahbazyan was just the second professional knockout for Hernandez in 11 fights, with the previous one coming all the way back in 2014. That doesn’t leave me feeling very optimistic about his chances in the standup, which means “Fluffy” is likely to resort to his ground game. Like I mentioned in the Cejudo-Dvalishvili breakdown, three rounds is not a lot of time to work and sometimes all it takes is a well-placed (or well-timed) takedown to steal the frame. Hernandez averages an impressive 6.79 takedowns per 15 minutes of action and holds a whopping 22 takedowns across his last three fights. Kopylov is going to have to find the chin of “Fluffy” and find it early, otherwise he’s going to spend most of this fight getting dragged across the canvas.

Prediction: Hernandez def. Kopylov by decision

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MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 298 fight card right RIGHT HERE, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 6:30 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining undercard balance on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 298: “Volkanovski vs. Topuria” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here. For the updated and finalized UFC 298 fight card and ESPN+ lineup click here.