Burns Vs. Della Maddalena Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight talents Gilbert Burns and Jack Della Maddalena will square off this weekend (Sat., March 9, 2024) at UFC 299 inside Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida.

Burns’ 2023 started nicely, as he strangled Neil Magny and beat up Jorge Masvidal with relatively little effort. Unfortunately, a short-notice opportunity to jump back into the title picture backfired, as Burns wrecked his shoulder early in his last bout versus Belal Muhammad, struggling to get much going for 25 minutes.

Della Maddalena is getting a step up in competition here. The body punching Australian has climbed the ranks quickly, moving from Contenders Series to Top Five opposition in less than three years and just seven total fights. He’s consistently impressed so far, but this is a big test for the boxer.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Burns Vs. Della Maddalena Betting Odds

• Gilbert Burns victory: +120
• Della Maddalena victory: -150
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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How Burns Wins

Burns benefitted from a jump in weight classes more than most. The middling Lightweight suddenly started knocking people out with much greater consistency, and that improved punching power alongside his elite jiu-jitsu saw him climb the ranks quickly to a 2021 title bid.

To defeat Della Maddalena, Burns first has to establish the threat of his hands. That’s not because he wants a kickboxing match versus Della Maddalena — far from it! However, Della Maddalena is too good of a defensive wrestler to simply be run over if Burns isn’t first able to set up those shots. Therefore, earning his foe’s respect on the feet is vital. Throwing in combination and hitting the body more often would go a long way in help make sure that Burns is landing rather than coming up short.

When it’s time to wrestle, Burns has to commit. Too often, Burns will try to explode through a double leg then give up if its sprawled upon. In this match up, the Brazilian should be chaining shots together or even jumping on submissions to force Della Maddalena into his world on the canvas.

If Burns is throwing heat and wrestling well, he can win this fight.

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How Della Maddalena Wins

Primarily, Della Maddalena wins this fight by NOT jumping the guillotine!

On a more serious note, Della Maddalena is a terrific combination puncher who likes to herd his opponents into the fence, shred the body, then finish upstairs for the knockout win. He’s stopped 11 opponents via knockout, showing off far better boxing than the usual MMA prospect in the process.

Perhaps the most obvious adjustment Della Maddalena can make here is to increase the volume of his jab. That’s a strike that historically gives Burns issues, particularly as a counter to his kicks. If Della Maddalena is interrupting Burns with the jab, preventing him from firing combinations or stepping up into kicks, it will go a long way in lining up his right hand.

The Australian primarily wins here by avoiding bottom position, which is a real threat to his win streak. Staying off the cage would be helpful, but Della Maddalena also has to be wary of head-hunting with his right hand. If he stays within himself and makes sure to really set up the right, it will be difficult for Burns to duck underneath the punch with a double leg.

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Final Burns vs. Della Maddalena Prediction

This is a tough one.

On one hand, it’s a significant step up for Della Maddalena. He’s never faced a grappler anywhere near the caliber of Burns, which is worrying considering how much trouble the relatively unheralded Bassil Hafez gave him on the floor. At the same time, Della Maddalena mostly wound up on bottom because he jumped guillotine, not because he was actually taken down. Plus, Burns is historically not that hard too hurt with punches, and Della Maddalena can absolutely crack.

The fight comes down to takedown defense, and in Della Maddalena, I see a stronger, younger athlete who should be able to keep the fight where he wants it. Given his power, he can also afford to make a mistake or two along the way, because it only takes one clean combination down the stretch to end this contest.

Prediction: Jack Della Maddalena victory (-150)