Holland Vs. Page Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight kickboxers Kevin Holland and Michael Page will duel this weekend (Sat., March 9, 2024) at UFC 299 inside Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida.

A lot was made about Holland’s drop to 170 pounds, how this could be just the change needed for “Trailblazer to finally tackle the title mix. As it turns out, Holland has climbed to roughly the same rank as he did at Middleweight. A ranked contender certainly, but a title shot remains out of reach. Fortunately, that leaves him open for fun and engaging match ups like the debuting Page. The long-time Bellator standout never won the title, but he scored several top-notch victories and proved himself a special talent with a penchant for highlight-reel finishes (watch them here).

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Holland Vs. Page Betting Odds

• Kevin Holland victory: -145
• Michael Page victory: +115
• Over 2.5 Rounds: -190
• Under 2.5 Rounds: +145
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Holland Wins

Holland wins this fight by learning lessons from the Stephen Thompson loss.

In that bout, Holland brought some creative ideas to the table, using a lot of lunging side kicks and aggressive clinch striking to counter his opponent’s excellent footwork. Those are good tactics and worked well, but it all went south when Holland both broke his hand and refused to wrestle.

Mixing up his approach will be key here. Holland has the range and power to compete with Page in his strongest area, but why choose to do so? Pursuing clinch offense and looking to catch kicks could make the fight a whole lot easier for him. Holland has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and it seems like making some use of it would be wise.

Holland’s top priorities may be to stay active and entertain fans, but winning is good, too.

Photo By David Fitzgerald/Sportsfile via Getty Images

How Page Wins

With 13 knockouts in 21 wins, it’s no secret how Page likes to fight. He’s a dynamic kickboxer, able to spring forward and cover massive amounts of distance with heavy shots … or punish his opponents with accurate counters when they try to do the same. For years, there’s been speculation about his grappling (or lack thereof), but Page has proven himself solid enough on the floor, too.

Fortunately, Holland seems inclined to give Page the fight he desires. Unlike many past opponents, however, Holland also has the build and tools to compete with Page at range. Page cannot rely solely on length and athleticism without those usual advantages; he has to rely more on fundamentals like the jab and round kicks to start controlling the range battle.

Both of these men tend to pick their shots well and rely on shorter combinations — classic strategies of lanky and precise strikers. When the height and reach are a bit more equal, combination building becomes more important. Page has to make that adjustment, throw more in the pocket, and find his mark first to walk away the victor.

Holland vs. Page Prediction

I’m predicting Page gets his Michael Chandler vs. Dan Hooker moment here in his UFC debut.

Holland hasn’t developed much in recent years. His takedown defense has progressed, certainly, but that’s not the question this match up asks of him. In fact, of his last four performances, his best came against a grappler in Michael Chiesa! Indeed, Thompson stopped him, whereas Holland looked fairly flat against kickboxers in Jack Della Maddalena and Santiago Ponzinibbio (even if he secured the late knockout win).

Of that trio, Page is the closest in style to “Wonderboy,” and he should be able to find similar avenues to success. More than that, Holland has always relied on durability more than defense, which sounds like an iffy tactic against a man who cracks skulls.

Literally.

Prediction: Page victory (+115)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 299 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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