Blanchfield Vs. Fiorot Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight contenders Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot will clash TONIGHT (Sat., March 30, 2024) inside Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J., for UFC Atlantic City.

By most any metric, Blanchfield has earned a title shot. She’s on a long win streak and has beaten two Top Five opponents — that’s title shot territory in a stacked division like Lightweight, let alone women’s Flyweight! Unfortunately, her surge towards the top comes at a time when Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko cannot stop rematching, so her would-be ascension is being delayed.

Fiorot has quite a strong resume herself! Undefeated at 125 lbs., it’s taken just six fights for the French striker to fire up the ladder and insert herself into the title picture. Like Blanchfield, victory here unquestionable secures Fiorot a shot at gold in her next appearance.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Blanchfield vs. Fiorot Betting Odds

• Erin Blanchfield victory: -205
• Erin Blanchfield via TKO/KO/DQ: +700
• Erin Blanchfield via submission: +280
• Erin Blanchfield via decision: +150
• Manon Fiorot victory: +220
• Manon Fiorot via TKO/KO/DQ: +425
• Manon Fiorot via submission: +2500
• Manon Fiorot via decision: +350
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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How Blanchfield Wins

Blanchfield is very well-rounded for 24 years of age. The accomplished jiu-jitsu black belt is lethal on the floor, but she can hold her own on the feet and chain wrestle at a higher level than most would predict.

Takedowns are going to be the key here. Blanchfield is tough and works at a good rate, but she doesn’t strike with the same snap as Fiorot. She’ll be at a disadvantage on the feet, and effective wrestling is going to be her best weapon to turn the tide in her favor.

How to get Fiorot down? There are several keys here. Fiorot does a pretty good job of not over-extending with her punches, and her kicks tend to come suddenly or in the form of a side kick, which is difficult to catch. However, it’s not all that hard to get her to the fence, where Blanchfield can slow the fight down a little bit.

When Blanchfield commits to a shot, she has to stay on the legs even if Fiorot shuts down the initial blast. If she can continue to work her transitions, raw athleticism will matter a lot less than technical wrestling ability, and Fiorot still makes mistakes in that realm.

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How Fiorot Wins

Fiorot just might be the best athlete in her division. Strong, well-conditioned, and fast, she’s able to manage range well with her high-volume output. Her boxing is more functional than technically pretty, but she complements her hands with a quality kicking game.

Sprawl-and-brawl is the name of the game here. Fiorot is a significantly more effective range striker than Blanchfield generally, and her side-on stance means it’s difficult to duck under her punches for the double leg. She forces foes up into the clinch or onto the single leg, where strength and balance are great tools in avoiding the takedown.

At distance, Fiorot has a lot more snap on her shots, and the side kick should be a really great weapon for interrupting Blanchfield’s own kicks. If she can take Blanchfield’s kicking away from her by countering (both with the side kick and punches), Blanchfield is pretty much left with a 1-2 and double leg at distance.

Offense Fiorot should be able to read.

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Blanchfield vs. Fiorot Prediction

I’m going with the underdog.

I like a lot of what Blanchfield brings to the table. Her youth, grit, and well-rounded skill seem to guaranteed a title at some point in the future. However, she’s facing a difficult stylistic match up — Fiorot’s entire game is to strike at distance and deny takedown attempts, which she’s so far managed at a 91% rate — and a superior athlete.

That’s a difficult combination. Fiorot is going to be the one doing more damage, which wears on a fighter as the fight builds on. Every side kick she lands will only increase her speed advantage, leaving Blanchfield in a position where she’ll pretty much have to score a submission to win.

Prediction: Fiorot via decision (+350)