Gaethje vs. Holloway Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight standouts Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway will battle for the “BMF” gimmick belt this weekend (Sat., April 13, 2024) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 300.

For my money, Gaethje’s last performance was the best of his career (watch it). He looked fully prepared for Dustin Poirier, expertly taking apart “The Diamond” with strategic low kicks and body work en route to the epic head kick knockout. It was worlds apart from their 2018 brawl (watch that here), proof that Gaethje still has plenty left in the tank at 35 years of age. Holloway, meanwhile, took a great risk by accepting this 155-pound bout, but he asked for it. Alexander Volkanovski has finally been dethroned, Holloway rides a quality two-fight win streak, and the Hawaiian isn’t getting a Featherweight title shot? Instead, he’s taking on one of the most violent men in the sport up a division, where the benefits of a victory (aside from money, fame and glory) aren’t exactly clear.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Gaethje vs. Holloway Betting Odds

• Justin Gaethje victory: -185
• Justin Gaethje via TKO/KO/DQ: +150
• Justin Gaethje via submission: +2200
• Justin Gaethje via decision: +275
• Max Holloway victory: +140
• Max Holloway via TKO/KO/DQ: +800
• Max Holloway via submission: +2000
• Max Holloway via decision: +225
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Gaethje Wins

Gaethje has bricks in his fists. Everyone who fights him remarks about his clubbing punching power, and they’re usually limping for a weeks afterward because of his savage low kicking game. He’s one of the premier wrestlers in reverse, using his collegiate background solely to keep the fight upright.

It’s silly to say that Gaethje’s biggest and best weapon is his most important tool, but … his low kicks will determine the outcome. Holloway is a boxer in four-ounce gloves, and no boxer likes having his combinations and jab disrupted by low kicks. If Gaethje can start landing on Holloway’s lower half, it will slow Holloway’s movement, stance shifts, combination punching — all the stuff that makes Holloway great!

Holloway, of course, will have prepared for Gaethje’s low kicks, so it won’t be as simple as just blasting away from the first bell. Gaethje has initiate exchanges and get Holloway punching, then he can look to dip his head off the centerline and attack the leg.

How Holloway Wins

Holloway has carved out a place in history already as one of the greatest Featherweights of all time (just ask Dana White). “Blessed” is the epitome of high-volume and work rate, able to drown opponents in volume and overwhelm them with pure activity. Of course, there are lot of tactics and tricks to how he engages, but pure punch count is a beautiful thing.

Holloway wins this fight by stopping Gaethje. I’m not sure it’s even possible to decision “The Highlight!” He forces the issue in such an extreme fashion that a finish seems inevitable. If Gaethje’s victory hinges on the low kicks, then it makes sense that Holloway’s success will be determined by his footwork.

The goal here should be to draw out Gaethje’s offense. Holloway has to use his stance shifts and feints to make Gaethje kick and swing at air. When he starts to get a read on Gaethje’s timing, Holloway can start looking to touch, pull and return. Poking his foe with a jab, stepping off at an angle to avoid return fire, then coming in hard with his own combination — that’s exactly how Holloway puts volume on opponents, and Gaethje’s overcommitted swings make him a prime candidate.

Body work feels like the other key here. Gaethje famously does not like his mid-section touched, and Holloway can double-dip on his body attack by utilizing lots of open side kicks and punching combinations that go low. Much like Eddie Alvarez back in the day, Holloway has both the chin and boxing prowess necessary to get in Gaethje’s grill on occasion and rip up his liver to great effect.

Gaethje Vs. Holloway Prediction

While a Gaethje victory wouldn’t surprise me necessarily, I quite like this style match up for Holloway. Gaethje’s low kicks are a problem for everyone, but he’s nowhere near as quick with them as Volkanovski. Given a full camp to prepare, Holloway should come ready to check and evade that weapon.

As for the rest of their striking game, Holloway is just a better technician. His ability to attack fluidly from both stances should open up a lot of offense for the Hawaiian, and the body work will slow down Gaethje sooner than later. Give Holloway one inch at any point, and he’s going to surge forward until his opponent falls or the final bell rings.

A few wild swings aren’t going to scare Holloway away from the pocket, and longer trades greatly favor him. Over 25 minutes, Holloway’s crisper boxing, greater offensive variety and ungodly durability will take over the fight.

Prediction: Holloway via KO/TKO/DQ (+800)

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