Predictions! UFC 300 Main Card PPV Preview

UFC 300 is (almost) upon us.

It’s been something of a rollercoaster ride over the last few months, from the first announcement to the final fight, but none of that really matters at this stage of the game. Assuming everyone makes weight, and they should, there’s nothing left to do but fight. Leading the charge will be light heavyweight rivals Alex Pereira and Jamahal Hill, taking top billing for UFC 300’s five-fight pay-per-view (PPV) main card. “Poatan” is hoping to defend his 205-pound strap against the returning “Sweet Dreams,” who was forced to surrender the crown when he blew out his Achilles tendon last summer. Considering the power at play in this light heavyweight contest, I think most of us will be shocked if Pereira vs. Hill lasts all five rounds. Heck, I’d be surprised to see it reach the third.

In the second of three title fights booked for tomorrow night (Sat., April 13, 2024) at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, strawweight champion Zhang Weili will answer the call of top 115-pound contender Yan Xiaonan, who has five rounds to try and snatch the strap from “Magnum.” Also getting 25 minutes of championship airtime are Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway. “The Highlight” is putting his “BMF” belt up for grabs against the “Blessed” Hawaiian, who previously held gold at 145 pounds. In lightweight action, former division kingpin Charles Oliveira is tasked with turning away red-hot Russian bruiser Arman Tsarukyan in what is likely to decide the next challenger for Islam Makhachev’s 155-pound strap.

Before we break down UFC 300’s five-fight PPV main card, which gets underway with the middleweight contest pitting undefeated wrestling phenom Bo Nickal against venerable 185-pound veteran Cody Brundage, be sure to take a closer look at our comprehensive preview and predictions for tomorrow night’s UFC 300 preliminary undercard action on ESPN and ESPN+ by clicking here and here. The latest UFC 300 odds and a complete betting guide for the entire “Pereira vs. Hill” PPV lineup can be located here.

Let’s get to work.

205 lbs.: UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Alex “Poatan” Pereira (9-2) vs. Jamahal “Sweet Dreams” Hill (12-1)

Alex Pereira is already 2-0 at light heavyweight and currently holds the 205-pound title, but fight fans are still waiting for the kind of lights-out performance that established “Poatan” as one of the scariest strikers at 185 pounds. Remember that showstopper against Sean Strickland? Instead, we’ve got a split decision against Jan Blachowiz at UFC 291 followed by an early stoppage opposite Jiri Prochazka at UFC 295 — both of which followed a knockout loss to Israel Adesanya. Simply put, there’s good reason some Pereira fans are nervous heading into the UFC 300 main event. Let’s also not overlook the fact that “Poatan” turns 37 in July and spent nearly a decade competing on the kickboxing circuit before transitioning to MMA. It may seem like I’m sounding the alarm too early for a guy who is 6-1 in UFC with four knockouts, but we’re talking about the tippy top of the division and there’s very little margin for error — or competitive decline. Fortunately for Pereira, he’s still got a cannon for a left hand, giving him one-punch knockout power at any point in the fight.

Jamahal Hill knows a thing or two about power, having slept five of his eight opponents. I’m including Klidson Abreu in that body count despite the “No Contest,” because a goofy marijuana metabolite did nothing to help “Sweet Dreams” turn off the lights. I know the pre-fight banter from his coaches has Hill “levels above” Pereira in the striking department, which has me convinced they missed the bus (or fell asleep) during his Thiago Santos win, one of the ugliest light heavyweight fights within the last five years. More impressive was his systematic breakdown of Glover Teixeira to win the light heavyweight title at UFC 283, which he would later surrender due to injury. G-Tex was already 43 by that point and probably not the best matchup for a massive striker like Hill, who stands 6’4” and boasts a 79” reach (identical to Pereira, who is also a southpaw). That was the last time we saw the former Dana White’s “Contender Series” standout, an injury layoff of nearly 15 months.

This is where it gets tricky.

Pereira is fighting a striker who is just as big and powerful and is not afraid to throw bombs. That could present a serious problem for the Brazilian because of his upright stance and porous defense. “Poatan” was able to get away with some of that incoming fire at middleweight (Adesanya notwithstanding), but this is far more dangerous division in terms of power. I can easily see Hill walking through Pereira’s low kicks and dropping the hammer. On the other hand, it feels reckless to pick the upset when the challenger is coming off such a long period of inactivity, especially considering the nature of his setback. An achilles tear is one of the most brutal injuries in sports and Hill is returning ahead of schedule against a lethal weapon. Is the “Sweet Dreams” camp going to convince me that Hill was able to train for five rounds of cardio while also rehabbing a torn achilles? I hope not, because I would not believe them.

Remember, this fight was booked less than two months ago.

That’s pretty much the story behind tomorrow night’s headliner. If Hill is going to prevail, he’s going to land a devastating punch and faceplant Pereira in the opening frame. If not, “Poatan” is going to wear him down and wait for “Sweet Dreams” to run out of gas (which shouldn’t take long), then unleash hell. I wouldn’t bet this fight because both combatants have bombs in their gloves, but if I did, I would probably bet against the fighter who was still on crutches at the beginning of the year.

Prediction: Pereira def. Hill by technical knockout

115 lbs.: UFC Strawweight Champion Zhang “Magnum” Weili (24-3) vs. Yan “Fury” Xiaonan (18-3)

If you were a strawweight preparing for a Zhang Weili title fight, your coaches would probably hire Yan Xiaonan as your main training partner for the duration of your camp. That’s because “Fury” is like the Kirkland brand Weili, which sounds like an insult, but it’s more of a compliment for the champion who is a unique and special talent. I don’t know if fans appreciate what they have right now but I guarantee they’ll miss her when she’s gone. “Magnum” has scored three straight performance bonuses and boasts five within the last four years, including her legendary “Fight of the Night” against the since-retired Joanna Jedrzejczyk. It’s a shame Rose Namajunas didn’t stick around for a third fight but I guess the call of the flyweight title was too much to resist.

I mention “Thug” because her absence helped get the assembly line up and running again, clearing the path for contenders like Xiaonan. “Fury” didn’t look great in consecutive losses to Carla Esparza (UFC Vegas 27) and Marina Rodriguez (UFC 272), but she bounced back with a majority decision win over Mackenzie Dern (UFC Vegas 61) before blowing the doors off former champion Jessica Andrade at UFC 288. Smashing “Bate Estaca” landed Xiaonan at No. 1 in the official UFC rankings, though part of me wonders if she would have secured that spot had Tatiana Suarez not missed nearly four years of her competitive prime. Nevertheless, Xiaonan is here and ready to capture the crown, boasting eight knockouts in 18 wins. That’s the good news. The bad news is that seven of them came on the international circuit against crash test dummies like Xiaoying Wang and Omnia Gamal, who are a combined 0-4 in professional MMA. Under the UFC banner, “Fury” has been to the judges’ scorecards in seven of her eight wins.

That’s not gonna cut it against a power-punching killer like Weili.

“Magnum” is like the Justin Gaethje of women’s strawweight in that her only goal is to create as much damage as possible and win the fight through extreme violence. Also like Gaethje, she can be caught and put out to pasture like she was against Namajunas. That would require Xiaonan to have the sort of standup “Thug” did or train under a coach as talented as Trevor Wittman and she’s 0-2 on that front. Overlooking the Esparza loss, the challenger is a tough, durable fighter who at 34, is the same age as the champion. She is not, however, the same fighter as Weili and I expect her to get her ass kicked for the better part of five rounds. Whether or not she keeps from getting finished all depends on how long she can stay on her bicycle, because “Magnum” is not going to take her foot of the gas until the final bell.

Prediction: Weili def. Xiaonan by decision

155 lbs.: BMF Champion Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje (25-4) vs. “Blessed” Max Holloway (25-7)

BMF champion Justin Gaethje, much like Dustin Poirier before him, had two opportunities to capture the lightweight crown and came up empty in both attempts, getting strangled by Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 254 before tapping to Charles Oliveira at UFC 274. Despite those missteps, Gaethje remains ranked No. 2 at 155 pounds, based on his ability to lay waste to some of the bigger names in the division, like Poirier and Rafael Fiziev. But his recent success and legendary “Highlight” reel has also helped gloss over some of his shortcomings. Gaethje was knocked out by “The Diamond” at UFC on FOX 29 and got kneed into oblivion by Eddie Alvarez at UFC 218. Let’s also remember that Gaethje was saved by the bell when Tony Ferguson nearly decapitated him with a Shoryuken in the second round of their UFC 249 bloodbath. Yes, Max Holloway is a natural featherweight. He also lands a staggering 7.17 strikes per minute and holds the UFC record for significant strikes connected at 3197 — well over a thousand more than the next highest competitor. 445 of those significant strikes landed on the face of Calvin Kattar at UFC Fight Island 7, but that’s a story for a different column.

There’s not much we can say about Holloway that hasn’t already been said. He’s one of the greatest featherweights of all time and a first-ballot hall of famer, even though UFC doesn’t cast ballots or have a voting committee, it’s basically just “We can monetize this fighter’s legacy and give them a fancy gold trophy in return.” For this contest, Holloway will get the fight he loves the most, an all-action striking battle. Despite his many merits, it’s hard to build a case for the upset (Holloway is the +135 underdog) when you consider his last trip to lightweight ended in a fairly-convincing loss to Poirier, back when “Blessed” had less wear-and-tear on his body. In terms of durability, Holloway’s chin is legendary and he’s survived some pretty epic wars over the years and sooner or later that chin is going to crack. Will it be in this fight? I’m not sure there’s a better fighter at creating damage than Gaethje, so this will have to become a technical battle for the 32 year-old Hawaiian. That’s not what the “BMF” belt is all about and Holloway probably shouldn’t care, but I have a feeling he does and will want to deliver the kind of car crash we’re all secretly (and in many cases openly) hoping for.

It’s not outrageous to think Holloway can win this contest because defensively, Gaethje makes a lot of mistakes. Even when he doesn’t, every attack leaves you vulnerable to a counterattack. I just have trouble believing Gaethje won’t be able to dominate this fight with his power, and we haven’t even talked about his punishing leg kicks. Expect Holloway to put forth a valiant effort and once again demonstrate his warrior spirit, but as the fight drags on and the damage adds up, I think the referee is going to be forced to stop this, not unlike the Ferguson finish.

Prediction: Gaethje def. Holloway by technical knockout

155 lbs.: Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (34-9, 1 NC) vs. Arman “Ahalkalakets” Tsarukyan (21-3)

There’s been a lot of talk over the last few weeks about lightweight title shots, with Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje the top two names being bandied about. That comes as a bit of a surprise when you consider Charles Oliveira finished them both by rear-naked choke in consecutive title fights back in late 2021 (Poirier) and early 2022 (Gaethje). You can argue that Oliveira had his shot at UFC 294 and blew it (if you believe this narrative), which is why he got booked to compete at UFC 300, but let’s also acknowledge that “Do Bronx” is 12-1 dating back to late 2017 with 11 finishes, remains ranked at No. 1 in the lightweight division, and is coming off a violent, first-round ass kicking of Beneil Dariush at UFC 289. You can also argue that his one loss came against a fighter who is basically Arman Tsarukyan with a five-year head start. If you’re an Oliveira fan, there’s certainly a reason to be anxious about that performance repeating itself at UFC 300, which has more to do with style than ability.

When Tsarukyan lost to Makhachev at UFC St. Petersburg, “Ahalkalakets” was just 22 years old and making his Octagon debut. Since then, the Russian powerhouse has put together an 8-1 record and is currently riding a three-fight winning streak, which includes his destruction of the aforementioned Dariush at UFC Austin to close out his 2023 fight campaign. We must also acknowledge that Tsarukyan is not a boring, lay-and-pray wrestler who grinds his way to the scorecards, having secured four knockout/technical knockout stoppages in his last five wins. In addition, half his fights in UFC have returned post-fight performance bonuses, including two “Fight of the Night” honors. Chicken feed when compared to the 19 bonuses held by Oliveira (a UFC record), but “Do Bronx” has also been competing inside the Octagon since summer 2010 — when Tsarukyan was just 13 years old. Regardless, Oliveira has dreadful takedown defense, getting dragged to the floor in about one out of every two attempts (55 percent). On top of that, “Do Bronx” will only have 15 minutes to create an opportunity, which is difficult to do when you’re on your back getting blasted by a younger, fresher opponent.

Oliveira is taller and holds a longer reach. He also hits with power, something that will no doubt be on the mind of Tsarukyan whenever they spend any time on the feet. I’m less concerned with what happens on the ground because “Ahalkalakets” is too polished to silver-platter an arm or overextend and get caught in a triangle choke. It’s hard to bet against Tsarukyan, the -225 betting favorite, because of his ability to neutralize the Brazilian. Add to that the nearly 30 takedown he’s racked up over the last five years and this feels like a rout from bell-to-bell. I think Oliveira hangs on to the end, but anything less than 30-27 across the board would surprise me.

Prediction: Tsarukyan def. Oliveira by decision

185 lbs.: Bo Nickal (5-0) vs. Cody Brundage (10-5)

Bo Nickal returns for just his third UFC fight by landing a coveted spot on the UFC 300 PPV main card, which seemed to be a major point of contention for fickle fight fans. I’m not sure I understand what the problem is because this is not like the old days when “Prelims” were untelevised so any contest that coughed up main card real estate can still be seen on ESPN — for free — so who gives a shit about the bout order?

Nickal is being pushed because the promotion believes he’s the future of the division and based on what we’ve see thus far from the collegiate wrestling phenom, that prediction appears to be holding up. That said, we still don’t know if Nickal is special or just another elite-level wrestler who is mopping the floor with C-level fighters (no disrespect to the Val Woodburns of the world but c’mon). I would also argue that most wrestlers with Nickal’s credentials could probably saw through half the roster just with their wrestling because takedowns are such a potent weapon. Working in Nickal’s favor is the fact that he’s training at American Top Team and getting carte blanche from owner Dan Lambert, who like the UFC brass, has been around long enough to know what money smells like.

For his UFC 300 assignment, Nickal draws battle-tested veteran Cody Brundage, a tough but somewhat unremarkable middleweight who continues to demonstrate proficiency in all aspects of MMA, though his 4-4 record inside the Octagon — coupled with his unsuccessful stint on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in late 2020 — leaves a lot to be desired. During the UFC 300 media day (watch it here), Brundage made several good points about his opponent, pointing out that Nickal has never been tested or shown that he can handle adversity inside the cage because he’s been bowling with bumpers. The counter to that claim, is whether or not Brundage can be the one to force Nickal into a bad position or create the kind of chaos that would erode the former Nittany Lion’s steely confidence.

Probably not.

Until proven otherwise, a Bo Nickal fight lives and dies on his takedowns, which means Brundage will need to find a way to remain upright across the course of 15 minutes of action. We’ve seen aging Olympic wrestlers like Henry Cejudo and Yoel Romero get outwrestled in the past, but Nickal is still just 28 years old and operating in his athletic prime. It’s also worth pointing out that Brundage was taken down four times in his loss to Nick Maximov — a standout wrestler in both high school and college — at UFC 266 back in late 2021. No doubt Brundage has improved since then, but enough to stymie someone as decorated as Nickal? I don’t really see anything on paper that screams “upset” and the idea of Brundage landing a one-hitter quitter is about as plausible as Nickal blowing out his knee or some other out-of-the-blue outcome.

There’s a reason Brundage is one of the biggest underdogs in UFC history.

Prediction: Nickal def. Brundage by submission

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MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 300 fight card right RIGHT HERE, starting with the early ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining undercard balance on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the UFC 300 PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 300: “Pereira vs. Hill” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive UFC 300 event archive right here. For the updated and finalized UFC 300 fight card and PPV lineup click here.