Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan prediction, pick: Who wins first all-Chinese title fight at UFC 300?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 300 co-main event between strawweight champion Zhang Weili and Yan Xiaonan, who will make history as the first all-Chinese title-fight matchup in UFC history.

Zhang Weili UFC 300 preview

Staple info:

• Height: 5’4″ Age: 34 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 63″
• Record: (24-3 MMA, 8-2 UFC)
• Last fight: Decision win over Amanda Lemos (Aug. 19, 2023)
• Camp: Team Zhang (China)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ UFC strawweight champion
+ Wushu sanda background
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 11 knockout victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Explosive athlete
+ Wide variation of striking arsenal
^ From fundamentals to spinning attacks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Elbows, knees, trips, tosses
+ Improved wrestling and scrambling
+ Solid transitional grappling from topside

Yan Xiaonan UFC 300 preview

Staple info:

• Height: 5’5″ Age: 34 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 63″
• Record: (17-3 MMA, 8-2 UFC)
• Last fight: Knockout win over Jessica Andrade (May 6, 2023)
• Camp: China Top Team/Team Alpha Male (Calif.)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA title
+ Wushu sanda background
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 8 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Hard hooks and crosses
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Dynamic kicking variety
^ Good switch kicks and sidekicks
+ Shows improved wrestling
^ Solid frames and fundamentals
+ Serviceably grappling ability

Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan point of interest: Sanda strikers

The co-main event in Las Vegas features a women’s strawweight title fight between two fighters from a wushu sanda background.

Though listed as a fighter who grew up with said base, Zhang continues to add to her striking arsenal as her MMA career continues.

The former strawweight champion can come forward aggressively but ultimately prefers staying light on her feet, all while using feints to open up kicks and hooking combinations that come with a muay Thai flare in tow.

Like many sanda practitioners, Zhang is also not shy about using spinning attacks when the positions call for it. Whether she’s corralling her opponents into turning sidekicks or countering outside-foot approaches with spinning backfists, the 34-year-old seems confident striking from multiple roles and ranges.

However, outside of a natural feel for distance and the occasional slip off the center, Zhang has shown that she is not beyond being stung by hard counters during her aggressive engagements. With that in mind, I will be curious to see how much she’s willing to come forward considering the countering threats of Yan.

A more traditional sanda stylist who has clearly worked on her boxing since training stateside, Yan possesses hard hooks and crosses that she can sit down on and counter with when the occasion calls for it.

Although Yan appears to have gotten a bit sharper with her jab, she likes to utilize her sidekicks to assist her distancing efforts. Yan has thankfully toned down the temperature in the spinning department, but will still punch off of kicks and counter in combination when feeling in stride.

In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Yan mix in more lead-sided kicks considering the success fighters like Namajunas had with it in the past.

Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Considering where the biggest on-paper disparities are between these two, no one should be shocked if Zhang looks to tie up with the challenger in closed quarters.

As we saw in her first title-winning effort in Shenzhen, China, Zhang possesses the power to demolish durable opposition with hard knees and elbows within close quarters.

The champion’s sanda background also comes in handy when hanging out in this space, showing the ability to hit slick trips and takedowns at the drop of a dime.

Since then, Zhang has upgraded her wrestling chops by working with talents like Henry Cejudo to the Hickman brothers (who operate out of Bang Tao Muay Thai). Now, it is not uncommon for Zhang to hit competent wrestling chains in open space, almost as if it were second nature.

When Zhang can establish any sort of control off of a takedown, the Chinese champion is quick to make hay by both settling into position, as well as seeking out damaging strikes like short elbows. Zhang, at least when she’s not being overaggressive, seems very competent inside of scrambles with a freakish back-take ability to boot.

That said, Yan has shown some measurable improvements to her own grappling game.

After getting outclassed by Carla Esparza back in 2021, Yan moved shop to train with Urijah Faber and company at Team Alpha Male. Working with a slew of MMA wrestlers and submission grapplers, Yan demonstrated marked improvements by the time she faced a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist in Mackenzie Dern.

Accompanying her overhooks with the appropriate frames and head position, Yan displays a much better understanding of wrestling fundamentals as they relate to defending takedowns. And when Yan was grounded, she did a decent job of staying calm and successfully surviving submission attempts from a world-class practitioner in Dern.

Nevertheless, Yan did find herself stuck in negative positions for prolonged periods against Dern, and will need to show more urgency if she ends up on bottom this Saturday.

Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan odds

The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the sitting champion, listing Zhang -500 and Yan +340, according to FanDuel.

Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan prediction, pick

Even though the betting line opened a lot tighter than what’s listed above, I can understand the love coming in for Zhang.

Not only is the sitting champion arguably one of the most athletic and explosive fighters on the entire roster, but Zhang’s skills – particularly in the grappling realm – jump off the page in this matchup.

Yan’s counters will make her a live dog on the feet in the early frames, but I’m not sure how much her kicks will help her considering Zhang’s hardwiring counters those attacks with either strikes or takedowns.

Add in Zhang’s fight-to-fight grappling improvements under the care of No-Gi world champion Josh Hinger, and I suspect that “Magnum” finds a finish on the floor by round 3.

Prediction: Zhang inside the distance

Zhang Weili vs Yan Xiaonan start time, where to watch

Zhang and Xiaonan are expected to make their walks out to the octagon at approximately midnight ET (9 p.m. local time in Las Vegas). The fight streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.