Pantoja Vs. Erceg Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight talents Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., May 4, 2024) inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for UFC 301.

Pantoja is on the hunt for the second defense of his Flyweight crown, but he’s run into a problem: he’s defeated up most of the top contenders. Pantoja’s record versus the current Flyweight Top 10 is ridiculous, as he’s beaten most of them at some point and holds multiple wins over Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval. Consequently, UFC was forced to look far down the rankings for a challenger, and the best option that came up was Erceg. The Australian still seems to be more of a prospect than bonafide contender, but at 3-0 in the Octagon, he’s getting a huge opportunity.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Pantoja Vs. Erceg Betting Odds

• Alexandre Pantoja victory: -185
• Alexandre Pantoja via TKO/KO/DQ: +450
• Alexandre Pantoja via submission: +300
• Alexandre Pantoja via decision: +200
• Steve Erceg victory: +140
• Steve Erceg via TKO/KO/DQ: +400
• Steve Erceg via submission: +1200
• Steve Erceg via decision: +450
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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How Pantoja Wins

Pantoja might be the best backpacker in the sport right now, and he pairs that asset with … a brick chin and penchant for throwing leather? It’s an odd combo, certainly, but Pantoja brawls his way into submissions and strong positions better than just about anyone else.

In this match up, Pantoja is probably eyeing Erceg’s competitive decision win over Alessandro Costa. In the second round specifically, Costa found a lot of success really bullying Erceg, forcing the Australian into uncomfortable positions and gaining top control as a result.

Pantoja can do the same. Both prongs of his attack — heavy punches and grappling offense — have to be respected by Erceg, which should open up lands and takedowns alike. Furthermore, Pantoja has the physicality to make Erceg’s life difficult, particularly on short-notice.

If Pantoja is at his mauling best, Erceg is in for a difficult evening.

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How Erceg Wins

Erceg is a well-rounded young talent. The 28-year-old challenger has won a majority of his fights via submission, but he’s also proven himself to have crisp boxing with good power in his shots.

Striking would appear to be his best chance at victory. Historically, Erceg puts together his combinations more cleanly than Pantoja, and he’s shown a good ability to manage distance too. He could still get clubbed by a big Pantoja swing, but that’s still a better risk to take than scrambling with the jiu-jitsu ace.

Pace is also going to play a major factor in any potential upset. Fatiguing is a huge liability in combat sports, particularly at Flyweight where fighters are expected to throw dozens of strikes per minute. Pantoja has been able to succeed anyway because he’s a gamer and can wrestle while gassed, but Erceg should be actively working to fatigue the champion. In short, that means the Australian’s volume should be higher than ever, and he should be aiming to cause attritional damage to the body and legs.

Photo by Buda Mendes/Zuffa LLC

Pantoja Vs. Erceg Prediction

It’s a strange match up but should be a good fight.

The knock against Pantoja is that he’s 34 years old and does slow down in the second half of five-round fights. Even so, he’s managed to win late rounds against cardio monsters like Moreno and Royval. Erceg has shown strong conditioning in the past, but he’s not one to push the pace quite like those two men, so it’s hard to see Pantoja crumbling in this match up after succeeding in the others.

Equally important is that Erceg hasn’t been given a full camp to prepare for Pantoja and his snake-like back takes. Pantoja always finds his way to the back at some point, and I find it unlikely that Erceg is able to escape with any kind of quickness — meaning Pantoja can manufacture rests when he needs them.

Erceg has a puncher’s chance, but that’s a bad bet at 125 pounds.

Prediction: Pantoja via submission (+300)

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