Lewis Vs. Nascimento Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Heavyweight bruisers Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento will throw down TONIGHT (Sat., May 11, 2024) inside Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Mo., for UFC St. Louis.

Very deep into his UFC career, Lewis — the most prolific knockout artist in UFC history — is starting to slow down. The 39-year-old veteran has lost four of his last five bouts, though it’s worth noting that at least all the men who defeated him were Top 10 opposition. Conversely, the sole win in his recent stretch came when Lewis fought down a bit against Marcos Rogerio de Lima, resulting in a massive knockout (watch highlights). Nascimento is another step back. Ignoring a result overturned because of a failed drug test, the Brazilian has won four of his last five, but it’s hard to argue any of those performances were particularly impressive. Perhaps this is his chance to standout?

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Photo by Pedro Vilela/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Lewis vs. Nascimento Betting Odds

• Derrick Lewis victory: -165
• Derrick Lewis via TKO/KO/DQ: -135
• Derrick Lewis via submission: +3000
• Derrick Lewis via decision: +1600
• Rodrigo Nascimento victory: +130
• Rodrigo Nascimento via TKO/KO/DQ: +380
• Rodrigo Nascimento via submission: +350
• Rodrigo Nascimento via decision: +1200
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images

How Lewis Wins

Derrick Lewis has some of the heaviest hands in the history of MMA. He’s not a great technician anywhere, but if a Lewis overhand connects or he finds his way to top position at any point, the fight is very likely over. 22 knockouts in 27 wins is no joke!

I have been tasked with writing strategy for Derrick Lewis a couple dozen times now, and it’s a consistently challenging task. The man has one strategy: he explodes at range with jumping kicks and knees, closes distance, and then swings for the fences. Occasionally, he’ll look for takedowns and try to drop heavy ground strikes.

That’s it! Lewis doesn’t really adjust to his opponents. He wins this fight if his power punches land on the chin of Nascimento, otherwise he’ll lose to the more skilled athlete. It’s the same scenario as all of his other fights, but there are some interesting questions about how Nascimento handles this challenge …

Photo by Pedro Vilela/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Nascimento Wins

At about 260 pounds, Nascimento is a large Heavyweight with a purple belt in jiu-jitsu. The majority of his victories come via tapout, but Nascimento has shown to have decent hands and good power as well.

There are historically two consistent paths to victory against “The Black Beast.” One can either strand him at kicking range and pick him apart (a la Ciryl Gane and Junior dos Santos), or a skilled grappler can control him on the canvas until a submission opens up (like Daniel Cormier and Serghei Spivac). Nascimento has the skills to chase either path, but which is more likely to succeed?

Grappling seems his best bet. Lewis’ explosions off his back are looking less dynamic and tend to come less often as of late. Plus, all that energy expenditure means his punches are less whipping when he does return to his feet. If Nascimento is consistent in his wrestling and careful when the two do exchange, he has a definite path to wearing Lewis out on the floor and wrapping up a strangle late in the fight.

Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images

Lewis Vs. Nascimento Prediction

I think Lewis has a few more knockouts left in him.

Not against anyone particularly good, mind you, but Nascimento is not that guy. He’s thoroughly average, and his win streak is built up of beating Don’Tale Mayes twice and sneaking away with a couple split-decisions. I’m reminded of just a couple months ago, when Shamil Gaziev was brought up off the undercards to randomly face off with Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Just because the A-side of a Heavyweight fight is losing fights to the top tier doesn’t mean a mediocre talent will replace them!

Lewis hits too hard and is too difficult to control. Eventually, he’ll get back to his feet, swing wide, and find his target.

Prediction: Lewis via knockout (-135)

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