Green Vs. Pimblett Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight standouts Bobby Green and Paddy Pimblett will throw down this weekend (Sat., July 27, 2024) at UFC 304 inside Co-Op Live in Manchester, England.

At 37 years of age, Green is no longer at his peak, yet its a testament to his natural athleticism and skill that he’s still managing to stick around the top-tier of one of the sport’s deepest divisions. Winner of three of his last four, Green is still very much a difficult challenge for most of the division, and he’s certainly the toughest test of Pimblett’s UFC career.

A bit of judging controversy aside, the 29-year-old “Baddy” enters this match up 5-0 inside the Octagon. This is his opportunity to break into the rankings and become more than a popular fighter from the UK — beating Green actually confirms that he’s a relevant player at 155 lbs.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Green vs. Pimblett Betting Odds

• Bobby Green victory: -120
• Bobby Green via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Bobby Green via submission: TBD
• Bobby Green via decision: TBD
• Paddy Pimblett victory: +100
• Paddy Pimblett via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Paddy Pimblett via submission: TBD
• Paddy Pimblett via decision: TBD
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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How Green Wins

Bobby Green has been playing this game for a long, long time. A professional since 2008, Green has fought pretty much a who’s who of the Lightweight division for the last 16 years across various promotions. All the while, his style has remained the same: slick straight punches, great head movement, and strong takedown defense.

Stylistically, this is a great match up for Green. He’s quite accustomed to fighters trying to take him down, and he’s shucked off better takedown artists than Pimblett. On the feet, Green is the faster and more technical boxer, and he should have little trouble in pinging 1-2s on the high chin of Pimblett.

The danger here is simple age. Green is a little slower than he used to be, and Pimblett is at his athletic best. In my eyes, the biggest threat to Green in this match up is getting clipped by a wild Pimblett charge. One possible solution is to more consistently keep the pressure on Pimblett, which will make it much more difficult for him to gain speed into his wild offensive bursts. Additionally, when Pimblett does start trying to combo, it’s very important that Green changes his angle, avoids the fence, and doesn’t back off on a straight line.

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How Pimblett Wins

Pimblett is a controversial fan favorite, a love ‘em or hate ‘em up-and-comer. Because of all the drama, it’s easy for Pimblett to simultaneously be overrated by his fans and underrated by the haters. In truth, he’s an excellent grappler, solid wrestler, and dangerous (but flawed) kickboxer.

The ideal circumstance for Pimblett here is to gain top position, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to do so without first scoring the knockdown. His takedowns are straight forward and more based in athleticism than technical transitions — the type of takedowns Green typically slides away from with relative ease.

If Pimblett can hurt his man first, however, it’s likely that he can get on top and dominate “King.” To do so, I’d like to see Pimblett firing power kicks then exploding into combination. Pimblett kicks hard, and a solid round kick upstairs can force Green’s hands out of countering position and still his feet. As Green is stuck in place, that’s Pimblett’s best chance to burst forward and create a big connection.

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Green vs. Pimblett Prediction

The difficulty in predicting this fight comes from the difference in age and wear-and-tear.

Generally, I believe Green to be a much better fighter than Pimblett. At one point back in 2014, “King” was ranked in the Top Five and likely a single win away from a shot at UFC gold — heights I do not expect Pimblett to reach. However, it’s undeniable that the two are moving in different directions. Green has already reached his peak and is slowly falling down the ladder, whereas Pimblett’s rise is still ongoing.

Every month that goes by increases the odds that Green is old enough for Pimblett to catch with a wild haymaker. Have we hit that point yet, or is Green still slick enough to box up Pimblett for the majority of 15 minutes?

It’s hard to say with serious confidence, but I think Green’s activity is a big boon in keeping him fresh and his timing sharp. This will be his fifth fight in the last 12 months, and he’s generally still performing at a Top 15 level. Even if he gets clipped once in the early goings, Pimblett isn’t a knockout artist the level of Jalin Turner or Drew Dober, so there’s every chance Green can pop back up and take two rounds.

I’m still riding with the veteran.

Prediction: Bobby Green victory (-120)