This weekend (Sat., Dec. 3, 2022), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to Amway Center in Orlando, Florida, for UFC Orlando. Confession: I only vaguely know what fights are coming up and what specific events are next-in-line outside of main events. Imagine my shock and awe when I cracked open good ol’ Wikipedia to scan Saturday’s fight card and discovered it’s actually an excellent bunch of fights! The entire main card is booked full of respected sluggers and name fights, which is a significant step up from the standard UFC Apex shows of late.

It may not be quite pay-per-view quality, but this weekend reads like an incredibly fun night of action. Let’s take a closer look at the match ups that lead up the to main event:

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Flyweight: Matheus Nicolau vs. Matt Schnell

Best Win for Nicolau? Manel Kape For Schnell? Louis Smolka
Current Streak: Nicolau has won five in a row (three in UFC), whereas Schnell rebounded last time out
X-Factor: Schnell fights are absolutely chaos as of late
How these two match up: Top 10 Flyweights collide!

Like so many other Flyweights, Nicolau never should have been released in 2019. The Brazilian is extremely technical in all areas, and he is a legitimate finishing threat as well. The 29-year-old is generally just very good, and he’s built up a 6-1 record inside the Octagon.

Schnell is well-rounded also, but he tends to be more extreme in his strengths and weaknesses. Schnell is likely the heavier hitter and more aggressive submission threat. However, he’s also getting knocked down and strangled far more often than Nicolau — his aggression is a double-sided sword to be sure.

Even now, I watch UFC Flyweight fights with a different mindset than most. Having trained with a decent portion of the roster over the years, it’s difficult not to self-insert and wonder, “How would this match up go for me?” Over the years, Nicolau has always stood out as a theoretical foe to-be-avoided, an elite level of opposition without the acclaim of more established names.

The Brazilian is just so polished. His kickboxing is very solid, his takedowns are slick, and his grappling is top-notch. Schnell could theoretically catch him with a big shot or sudden triangle, but barring a quick turn-of-events, Nicolau simply appears to be the better fighter, destined for the title mix.

Prediction: Nicolau via decision

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Heavyweight: Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergei Pavlovich

Best Win for Tuivasa? Derrick Lewis For Pavlovich? Derrick Lewis!
Current Streak: Tuivasa lost his last bout, whereas Pavlovich has won four straight
X-Factor: It’s been just three months since Tuivasa was knocked out by Ciryl Gane
How these two match up: Heavyweights brawlers are going to do what they do best.

Tuivasa is a deceptively quick and powerful slugger. There’s a fair bit of craft to the Aussie’s layered offense: his elbows in the clinch, powerful low kicks, and counter punching all separate him from the average big banger. Still, Tuivasa’s toughness and massive punching power remain his greatest attributes.

I wish I knew more about what makes Sergei Pavlovich so dangerous. When he keeps knocking out his UFC opposition in a minute or two, however, it’s tough to make reads beyond recognizing his enormous power! The Russian is a tank, a big man for the division unafraid to put together compact combinations of heavy punches.

I wouldn’t advise betting on this fight. Both men can send the other to the canvas in a senseless heap to easily. Tuivasa’s recent knockout loss is a major question mark as well. He took a ton of damage against Gane, and he’s already prepared to throw down with a truly nasty up-and-comer?

I have zero confidence. Still, Tuivasa has knocked out better opponents and been in there with the division’s best, so I’ll still give him a slight edge.

Prediction: Tuivasa via knockout

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Middleweight: Jack Hermansson vs. Roman Dolidze

Best Win for Hermansson? Kelvin Gastelum For Dolidze? Kyle Daukaus
Current Streak: Hermansson won his last bout, whereas Dolidze has won three straight
X-Factor: Dolidze accepted this fight last week!
How these two match up: European grapplers with funky striking throw down!

Hermansson is a very established contender at 185-pounds. Though a title shot continues to elude him, he’s repeatedly proven himself a remarkably tough out. Hermansson is at his best from top position, where he’s a very effective finisher with submissions and strikes alike.

Dolidze has looked wildly dangerous in his last couple trips to the Octagon. Since dropping down to Middleweight, his power has been more consistent, and the accomplished grappler remains a real threat on the floor. Everything seems to be clicking for the Georgian, who now rides quite a bit of momentum into this short-notice opportunity.

This is a classic case of consistency vs. danger. Hermansson is the more consistent round winner of the two. His jab is effective, and his stand up style may be a touch awkward, but he does well to control the flow of fights nevertheless. His wrestling is always a threat, and Hermansson never slows down.

Dolidze isn’t quite as good at winning minute-to-minute exchanges. He’s prone to dropping his activity or sacrificing position for submission attempts on the canvas. However, he’s also shredding knees and knocking people out quickly, and we cannot really say the same for Hermansson.

Fortunately for the Swede, he’s durable and knows his way around a leglock too. Even if Dolidze starts strong, the chances of Hermansson jabbing him up or finding top position and shifting momentum are rather strong.

Prediction: Hermansson via decision

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Middleweight: Eryk Anders vs. Kyle Daukaus

Best Win for Anders? For Daukaus? Jared Vanderaa
Current Streak: Anders lost his last two bouts, while Daukaus lost his last fight
X-Factor: Anders struggles to make 185-pounds
How these two match up: This is a very Middleweight fight in that the potential for a very fun scrap is equal to the odds of a real stinker.

Anders is a strange fighter. A tremendous athlete, he’s been on the roster since 2017, but it’s hard to see his technique or strategies have improved much. The Southpaw has a huge left hand, yet he finds himself embroiled in strange wrestling-heavy fights, often of his own choosing.

Daukaus remains a fighter with solid skills but inconsistent success inside the Octagon. A jiu-jitsu black belt without any major holes in his game, it’s not clear why Daukaus has failed to break through at 185 lbs., but his back is against the wall here.

On one hand, Anders’ best performances historically have come against BJJ guys unable to take him down, and there’s a real chance Daukaus falls into that category. However, “Ya Boi” has just looked really flat lately. The power puncher hasn’t knocked anyone out in over three years, relying on lots of cage control to earn the judges’ favor.

Daukaus should have the wrestling chops to avoid such a fate. While I don’t expect him to land many takedowns of his own, volume on the feet should still be enough to earn him the nod in a competitive fight.

Prediction: Daukaus via decision

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‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2022: 49-28

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Orlando fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 10 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN/ESPN+) at 10 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Orlando: “Thompson vs. Holland” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.