UFC Vegas 81: ‘Yusuff Vs Barboza’ Predictions

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 81 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Oct. 14, 2023) on ESPN+ from inside the promotion’s APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a featherweight main event between Top 15 title hopefuls Sodiq Yusuff and Edson Barboza, a five-round headliner with major title implications for late 2023 and beyond.

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 125-pound scrap between women’s flyweight contenders Jennifer Maia and Viviane Araujo, check out Patrick Stumberg’s breakdowns for the UFC Vegas 81 preliminary card by clicking here and here. For the latest “Yusuff vs. Barboza” odds and betting props courtesy of our fiscal friends over at Draft Kings go here. For the rest of the UFC Vegas 81 main card predictions click here.

145 lbs.: Sodiq Yusuff vs. Edson Barboza

“Super” Sodiq Yusuff

Record: 13-2 | Age: 30 | Betting line: -165
Wins: 6 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’9“ | Reach: 71” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.29 | Striking accuracy: 49%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.65 | Striking Defense: 57%
Takedown Average: 0.18 (12% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 70%
Current Ranking: No. 11 | Last fight: Submission win over Don Shainis

Edson Barboza

Record: 23-11 | Age: 37 | Betting line: +145
Wins: 14 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 8 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 5 DEC
Height: 5’11“ | Reach: 75” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.00 | Striking accuracy: 44%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.12 | Striking Defense: 58%
Takedown Average: 0.38 (44% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 75%
Current Ranking: No. 13 | Last fight: Knockout win over Billy Quarantillo

Sodiq Yusuff comes to us by way of Dana White’s “Contender Series,” landing a UFC deal with a standout performance over Mike Davis back in summer 2018. Yusuff, among many other talented prospects, has gone a long way in validating White’s annual proving ground, which to date, has awarded nearly 250 contracts. In the five years that followed, the “Super” featherweight has amassed an exceptional 6-1 record with three finishes. His lone loss came by decision to 145-pound wunderkind Arnold Allen, who’s beaten every featherweight not named Max Holloway. Yusuff’s biggest strength is his ability to be dangerous everywhere, which I think gives him a marked advantage over his fight night opponent.

Though I don’t think anyone’s in a big hurry to write off Barboza.

“They originally gave me [Barboza] for Abu Dhabi, but I couldn’t make it because of passport problems,” Yusuff said at the UFC Vegas 81 media day. “So I thought it was an opportunity that I already missed. So when they brought it back around, it was a yes, definitely. Edson is a legend. That’s a name I’d love to have under my resume.”

If we compare Barboza to Yusuff going back to late 2018 when “Super” made his Octagon debut, the Brazilian is just 4-5 across nine fights. It seems like every time we’re ready to call for Barboza’s retirement, the 37 year-old striker pulls off another highlight-reel knockout, like his first-round destruction of Billy Quarantillo at UFC Kansas City last April. Not surprisingly, the former lightweight captured a “Performance of the Night” bonus for that thrilling finish, the eleventh time Barboza has cashed a $50,000 check for being awesome, dating all the way back to March 2011. In a five-round fight, Yusuff only needs to make one mistake to find himself looking up at the lights.

“It’s an MMA fight,” Barboza said at the UFC Vegas 81 media day. “I need to be ready wherever this fight goes. I am ready. It’s an MMA fight. But everybody knows my style, they know the gameplan is always the same. Keep it on the feet and try to stop him, try to finish the fight as soon as possible. But wherever this fight goes, I’ll be ready.”

I think Yusuff has come too far as a striker to fall into the Brazilian’s traps. At the same time, “Super” has yet to demonstrate the kind of offensive wrestling that typically gives Barboza the fits. Is it reasonable to think Yusuff can beat Barboza in a 25-minute standup battle? Edson’s split decision losses to Dan Ige and Paul Felder go a long way in answering that question. Barboza is dangerous any time the bout remains upright and he’s certainly capable of winning this contest. It’s just hard to pick him against a younger, fresher combatant who continues to look better in each successive fight.

Prediction: Yusuff def. Barboza by unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Jennifer Maia vs. Viviane Araujo

Jennifer Maia

Record: 21-9-1 | Age: 35 | Betting line: -145
Wins: 4 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 12 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 7 DEC
Height: 5’4“ | Reach: 64” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.50 | Striking accuracy: 38%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.78 | Striking Defense: 55%
Takedown Average: 0.27 (21% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 57%
Current Ranking: No. 9 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Casey O’Neill

Viviane “Vivi” Araujo

Record: 11-5 | Age: 36 | Betting line: +125
Wins: 3 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 5’4“ | Reach: 68” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.63 | Striking accuracy: 47%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 5.45 | Striking Defense: 55%
Takedown Average: 1.81 (48% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 82%
Current Ranking: No. 11 | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Amanda Ribas

Jennifer Maia somehow managed to survive a dreadful 2-4 run over the last few years to win back-to-back unanimous decisions over Maryna Moroz and Casey O’Neill, the latter of which took place at UFC 286 back in March. The Brazilian bruiser remains ranked in the Top 10 at No. 9 with a 6-5 record in UFC, which should tell you everything you need to know about the women’s flyweight division. That’s not intended to disrespect any of the current talent, but we clearly still have a long way to go. Maia has just one finish across her last 15 fights, a first-round armbar over the likable but hopelessly inept (at least in terms of submission defense) Joanne Wood from summer 2020.

“I’m happy with this fight,” Maia said at the UFC Vegas 81 media day. “She is a hard opponent, but I think I’m better. I’m excited for this fight because if I win, I want to fight against the top five. I’m prepared to fight with the champion soon.”

Araujo started off hot after making her Octagon debut in early 2019, jumping out to a 4-1 record over established names in the division, like Alexis Davis and Roxanne Modafferi, among others. Then “Vivi” dropped three of her next four, which includes consecutive losses to Alexa Grasso and Amanda Ribas, the latter of which took place at UFC 285 last March. Like Maia, Araujo is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and tougher than a two-dollar steak but this is clearly a must-win situation for the former Pancrase fighter.

“I was very happy to be matched up against Jennifer,” Araujo told Sherdog.com. “I know her potential. It’s going to be an emotional, hard-fought battle. She’s a warrior who always moves forward with great combinations. She has a few holes in her game, like all the girls in the Top 10. We have to study them all with a lot of attention to detail. My entire team and I are studying Jennifer’s game so we can have the best plan to secure a victory. Winning is most important, whether it’s by knockout, submission or decision. Considering my current situation, a win is what matters most.”

I won’t spend much time breaking down this matchup because they’re both below-average strikers so there’s not much to dissect. I’m picking Araujo to win because her offensive wrestling is demonstrably better. Maia has been outwrestled 15-3 (takedowns) in her UFC career and I don’t expect UFC Vegas 81 to yield different results. It’s also a three-round fight, so “Vivi” doesn’t need to do a whole lot to win, aside from scoring a few takedowns while keeping herself off the fence. Expect Maia’s submission defense to hold up.

Prediction: Araujo def. Maia by unanimous decision

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 81 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 81 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN+ main card start time at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 81 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Yusuff vs. Barboza” fight card and ESPN+ line up click here.