UFC Sao Paulo Odds, Under Dogs And Best Bets!

Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC Sao Paulo, which is set to hit Ibirapuera Gymnasium in Brazil this weekend (Sat., Nov. 4, 2023), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!

Brazil battles the world in Sao Paulo, Brazil, this Saturday (Nov. 4, 2023) when Jailton Almeida leads the home team inside Ibirapuera Gymnasium against Derrick Lewis and a suite of international talent. UFC Sao Paulo will also see blue-chip Welterweight prospect, Gabriel Bonfim, battle Danish machine, Nicolas Dalby, and fast-rising Middleweight, Caio Borralho, meets Professional Fighters League (PFL) veteran, Abus Magomedov.

We’re down to just six events left this year; therefore, better make the most of them. Grab your wallets and let’s get cracking …

What Went Wrong at UFC 294?

Nathaniel Wood

As with Jennifer Maia the previous week, Wood just didn’t do enough before Muhammad Naimov predictably fell apart down the stretch. While I don’t disagree with the scorecards, though, I do feel Naimov should have received at least one point deduction from the low blows, as well as the fence and glove grabs.

Javid Basharat

I’m not going to say Basharat was cruising to victory, as the first round was pretty close, but I do think he was slightly ahead when he kicked Victor Henry’s sack inside-out. And yes, despite Basharat’s protestations, that was absolutely a low blow; Henry’s a tough SOB even by UFC’s ridiculous standards and I cannot fathom that he’d react that way to anything other than a genuine shot to the unmentionables.

What Went Right?

Mike Breeden, Shara Magomedov, Said Nurmagomedov, Islam Makhachev, Khamzat Chimaev, Trevor Peek and Ikram Aliskerov

The sailing wasn’t smooth for everyone, with Breeden and Chimaev especially struggling at times, but everyone got the job done on a quality evening.

UFC Sao Paul Odds For The Under Card:

Elves Brener (-148) vs. Esteban Ribovics (+124)

I like Ribovics as the underdog, honestly. He and Brener are almost certain to put on a slugfest, and though Brener might have slight edges in technical striking and offensive wrestling, Ribovics is the bigger hitter and the more durable of the two. Put at least a bit down on “El Gringo.”

Daniel Marcos (-250) vs. Victor Hugo (+205)

If Marcos fights with any sort of urgency, he’ll sprawl-and-brawl Hugo into the dirt. “Striker” is woefully rough on the feet despite nearly 30 pro fights and, at least on paper, doesn’t have the wrestling needed to take “Soncora” out of his comfort zone. Just don’t invest too much, as Marcos was weirdly passive against Davey Grant last time out.

Rinat Fakhretdinov (-345) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+275)

After his last couple of performances, I’m on the Fakhretdinov train. As fond as I am of Zaleski dos Santos, “Capoeira’s” only had one truly impressive performance in the last 4.5 years, which came against a massively undersized Benoit Saint-Denis. Fakhretdinov’s wrestling and sheer physicality look like just the right tools to neutralize Zaleski dos Santos’ explosive striking, so bet accordingly.

Vitor Petrino (-238) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (+195)

I won’t deny that Petrino has underwhelmed a bit in the Ocatgon. Someone with his power and physical abilities shouldn’t be going tooth and nail with the likes of Anton Turkalj and Marcin Prachnio. That said, he’s a very potent wrestler and Bukauskas has struggled in that area, so a small to moderate bet on Petrino makes sense.

Denise Gomes (-130) vs. Angela Hill (+110)

I can’t pick either of these women’s fights to save my life. Gomes has enough power to floor Hill if “Overkill” starts slow again, but Hill remains a highly adept boxer who might be able to take over if she can just survive the first five minutes. Gun to my head, I’d pick Gomes, but my track record compels me to stay away.

Eduarda Moura (-440) vs. Montserrat Ruiz (+340)

Can’t disagree with those odds. Moura is a better wrestler than Ruiz, who quite literally has only one form of offense in the head-and-arm throw. There’s no reason Moura shouldn’t demolish “Conejo” on the ground like Jaqueline Amorim did. Slap her in a parlay.

Marc Diakiese (-142) vs. Kaue Fernandes (+120)

Skip it. Diakiese has had fight IQ issues and Fernandes has had cardio issues, so I wouldn’t put my money on either.

UFC Sao Paul Odds For The Main Card:

Jailton Almeida (-470) vs. Derrick Lewis (+360)

Almeida’s front kick to double-leg has worked on everyone thus far, and while Curtis Bayrdes almost certainly had an answer thanks to his wrestling pedigree, I’m not sure Lewis does. That said, -470 is a lot to ask against someone with such a proclivity for out-of-nowhere knockouts. Probably best to leave this one alone.

Gabriel Bonfim (-575) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+425)

As lopsided as these odds are, they’re justified. Dalby has a nasty habit of starting slow, while Bonfim leaves his corner like he’s been shot out of a cannon. All signs point to Bonfim’s faster, heavier hands hurting Dalby early before finding their way around his neck.

Rodrigo Nascimento (-185) vs. Don’Tale Mayes (+154)

Not touching this one. Both of these men have flashes of competence offset by questionable decision-making and limited skillsets.

Caio Borralho (-250) vs. Abus Magomedov (+205)

Honestly a bit surprised that the odds are this close. Magomedov completely disintegrated on the big stage, gassing out after one moderately strenuous round against Sean Strickland. His chances look similarly slim against Borralho, a very adept grappler who’s beaten capable wrestlers like Makhmud Muradov before. Invest in Borralho.

Rodolfo Vieira (-110) vs. Armen Petrosyan (-110)

A bit disappointed that Vieira didn’t stay an underdog, but he’s still worth a look. Petrosyan’s defensive wrestling just hasn’t caught up to the rest of his game; four of his last five opponents scored multiple takedowns on him, with Caio Borralho racking up over 10 minutes of control time as well. Vieira admittedly takes a lot of hits, but he also showed a lot of heart against Cody Brundage, so I’d say go for it.

Ismael Bonfim (-440) vs. Vinc Pichel (+340)

Bonfim got way too big for his breeches against Benoit Saint-Denis. So long as he took the right lessons from that loss, he shouldn’t have any issues with Pichel. Bonfim is younger, far faster, and a far better striker when he’s not unnecessarily slugging it out. Beef up a parlay with him.

UFC Sao Paulo Best Bets:

Single bet — Esteban Ribovics: $60 to make $74.40

Parlay — Daniel Marcos and Vitor Petrino: $50 to make $49.41

Single bet — Rodolfo Vieira: $77 to make $70

Parlay — Rinat Fakhretdinov and Caio Borralho: $80 to make $64.60

Parlay — Ismael Bonfim, Gabriel Bonfim, and Eduarda Moura: $70 to make $53.77

Initial Investment For 2023: $600
April Bailout: $400
August Bailout: $500
Current Total: $1068.22

Not all the UFC Sao Paulo matchups are competitive on paper, but most should at least produce quality action. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Sao Paulo fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 9 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Sao Paulo: “Almeida vs. Lewis” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.