UFC Vegas 82 Clash: Allen Vs. Craig!

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight submission aces Brendan Allen and Paul Craig TONIGHT (Sat., Nov. 18, 2023) at UFC Vegas 82 inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

In a few short years, 27-year-old Allen has accrued a wealth of high level UFC experience and broken into the Top 10. Many of his accomplishments seem to poise him as a future elite contender, but fans haven’t really bought into the idea. This main event slot is a chance to really insert himself into the title picture, a showcase that Allen is here to stay at the top of the 185-pound pack. As for Craig, he’s still the wildly flawed and wildly dangerous fighter who submitted a who’s who of Light Heavyweight contenders (and got knocked out a good bit also). Craig climbed into the Top 10 at 205 pounds previously, and he’s got a chance break into that same territory at Middleweight here.

Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:

Brendan Allen

Record: 22-5
Key Wins: Kevin Holland (UFC On ESPN 6), Andre Muniz (UFC Vegas 70), Bruno Silva (UFC Jacksonville), Krzysztof Jotko (UFC Vegas 61)
Key Losses: Sean Strickland (UFC Vegas 14), Chris Curtis (UFC Vegas 44)
Keys to Victory: Allen can really do it all. He’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with genuine knockout power, and he’s shown that he can really hold his own wherever the fight goes.

In this bout, Allen has a big advantage on the feet. He hits harder, puts together combinations far more effectively, and can attack from more ranges. Craig is plenty hittable, so obviously, sprawl-and-brawl is the idea, right? No need to risk playing around in Craig’s guard?

I’m not sure it’s that simple. Both of these fighters are much, much better on offense than defense. If Allen tries to play keep away, his odds of getting cracked or taken down go up, simply because that’s not his usual approach. Fighters have braved Craig’s guard and beat him up before. I’d like to see Allen fight with confidence by walking his opponent down aggressively, reversing his takedown attempts, and then landing heavy ground strikes while minding his P’s and Q’s.

What’s the point of a jiu-jitsu black belt if Allen doesn’t use it?

Paul Craig

Record: 17-6 (1)
Key Wins: Magomed Ankalaev (UFC Fight Night 127), Jamahal Hill (UFC 263), Nikita Krylov (UFC London), Andre Muniz (UFC London),Mauricio Rua (UFC 255)
Key Losses: Johnny Walker (UFC 282), Volkan Oezdemir (UFC London 2), Khalil Rountree (UFC Fight Night 113), Tyson Pedro (UFC 209), Alonzo Menifield (UFC on ESPN 3)
Keys to Victory: Craig is an awkward but occasionally effective striker and wrestler. Really, it’s all about his grappling, which has stopped a shocking number of really talented fighters.

As mentioned above, Craig has to move forward to win fights. Well, he has to move forward to win fights that don’t involve him getting his ass kicked until he suddenly lands a triangle choke — that’s always a possibility.

Allen is not hard to hit. He is consistently surprised when his opponents initiate exchanges, and his response is almost always to stand his ground to fire back. Craig hits decently hard, and if he’s moving forward, he has a chance of hitting Allen decently hard regardless of his technical striking deficit.

More importantly, his chance of running Allen over with a double leg is better if he’s able to move forward, slip a counter shot, and keep that momentum going. Allen’s takedown defense isn’t impenetrable, and Craig is an accomplished grappler with a likely size advantage.

If he gets him down, he could do fight-changing damage or lock up a submission. Be aggressive and be confident!

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Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Bottom Line

One Middleweight leaves the cage in the Top 10.

Allen has won more than lost throughout his UFC career, but both of his knockout losses in the past really robbed him of momentum. His current five-fight win streak built that back up, and now that question is whether or not the ball keeps rolling. Victory should push him into another marquee match up against the likes of Marvin Vettori or even Robert Whittaker, whereas defeat sees him largely tread water on the fringe of the Top 10.

Meanwhile, Craig’s Middleweight ceiling is unknown. Perhaps the size and strength advantage allow him to take down and submit elite opposition more consistently than at 205 pounds! This is his chance to break into the Top 10 on a win streak, and maybe he does it impressively enough that people start to believe in a Craig title run.

If not, Craig is always fun, and there are plenty of new fights against ranked Middleweights.

At UFC Vegas 82, Brendan Allen and Paul Craig will go to war in the main event. Which man will earn the victory?

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 82 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 2 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 5 p.m. ET.

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