UFC Austin, The Morning After: Future Champion No More

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Way back in 2013, I can remember picking Kelvin Gastelum to upset Uriah Hall on MMA Playground, the now-defunct fantasy mixed martial arts (MMA) website. It’s an impossible brag to prove since the site has gone the way of the dodo, but I was pretty good at picking fights back then. A high school junior and big time fight fan, my prediction percentage hit an all-time high before I had other hobbies, a wife, or a job.

I saw championship potential in the 22-year-old Gastelum.

At the time, faith in Gastelum was an outlier belief. He was still just an undersized underdog on The Ultimate Fighter, pit against the most fearsome knockout artist to rise through The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) in years. Gastelum more than proved himself in that fight, however, showing off his remarkable innate gifts to score the win.

He dropped down to Welterweight immediately afterward, and people got on board. Jabbing up Rick Story was a big deal at the time. When he lost a split-decision to Tyron Woodley in 2015, he was just 24 years old, and Woodley would win the undisputed belt via first-round knockout in his next fight. One year later, Gastelum would out-class recently dethroned Johnny Hendricks in what would-be his final Welterweight appearance until last night (Sat. Dec. 2, 2023) at UFC Austin.

He was right there, in spitting distance of UFC gold.

This quick recap is skipping all the weight issues. Gastelum — despite being a perfectly reasonable size for a Welterweight — kept missing weight. Fights were canceled. He was forced to Middleweight for one bout. He promised to do better, given another chance, then it kept happening anyway.

Subsequently, Gastelum spent December 2016-April 2023 exiled at Middleweight. That seven-year stretch saw him routinely face massive size disparities, a disadvantage he overcame often. He challenged for interim gold and put on an all-time great fight against the rising Israel Adesanya, taking the fight to “Stylebender” at the start of his peak.

Once more, gold was almost in his lap.

As it turns out, some portion of that seven year period will stand as Gastelum’s prime. As the size disadvantage began to more consistently be used against Gastelum and losses started to build, there was always hope otherwise. Gastelum was still young (on paper). He could still get his s—t together, fix his diet, and return to the weight class he left as an elite contender.

Last night’s defeat to Sean Brady proved otherwise (watch highlights). If that moment did exist — some time when Gastelum could’ve dropped back down to Welterweight and captured the crown — it is around no longer for the 32 year old.

It’s not that Gastelum lost. Defeat alone wouldn’t warrant a championship obituary. The problem is that Sean Brady — one year younger and with far less mileage — out-classed Gastelum pretty much everywhere. Gastelum was expected to have a speed and striking advantage, but truthfully, Brady landed the harder shots and left Gastelum swinging at air even early in the fight.

The famously quick left of Gastelum looked slow.

On the mat, it was a complete wash. Did Brady fail on a single takedown attempt? Gastelum managed one slick escape out of back mount, but otherwise, he was dominated for minutes and minutes of the fight. Brady scored every good position possible, wore Gastelum down, and then locked up a kimura to finish him. It looked like he could recreate that result 10 times out of 10, and worse yet, it was a clear regression. Gastelum’s takedown and submission defense looked better against the much larger and more credentialed Chris Weidman six years ago!

At 185 pounds, Gastelum was too small to compete with the division’s best. Back at Welterweight, Gastelum is no longer quick or technical enough to compete with the elite. He’s now lost three of his last four and six of his last eight.

It pains me to say it after a decade as a fan, but the title dream is over.

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For complete UFC Austin: “Dariush vs. Tsarukyan” results and play-by-play, click HERE.