Yan Vs. Yadong Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight strikers Petr Yan and Song Yadong will go to war this weekend (Sat., March 9, 2024) at UFC 299 inside Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida.

Yan is one of the great recent examples of a career taking a sudden downward turn, as the Russian went from undisputed champion climbing the pound-for-pound ranks to three-fight losing streak almost overnight. Oddly, the change in fortunes can be pinned down to an exact moment: that stupid knee that saw him disqualified against Aljamain Sterling … in a fight he was clearly winning.

Meanwhile, Yadong has been steadily climbing the Bantamweight ranks. The 26-year-old talent has won five of his last six bouts, showing steady improvement and tremendous knockout power in the process. His last two bouts were main event victories, and now, Yadong is looking to punch his way into the immediate title mix opposite the former champion.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Photo by Louis Grasse/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Yan Vs. Yadong Betting Odds

• Petr Yan victory: -115
• Song Yadong victory: -105
• Over 2.5 rounds: -280
• Under 2.5 rounds: +210

(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Yan Wins

Yan doesn’t suck because he lost two split decisions to the two most recent champions and then got out-hustled by Merab Dvalishvili. “No Mercy” remains an excellent kickboxer with ironclad takedown defense, able to build punishing combinations and work all targets of his opponent.

This is Yan’s first three-round bout since Dec. 2019, and he has the reputation of a slow starter. The Russian has to start quickly here, because Yadong is too fast and can do damage quickly if given time to work. Plus, with only 15 minutes to fight, digging himself out of a hole would be a tough challenge.

Both men are great four-ounce gloves boxers, but Yan’s kicks feel like a great advantage here. Yadong likes to box in combination and advance forward, so a well-timed calf or liver kick could really disrupt his offense and upset his distance. In general, Yadong has a habit of chasing opponents, so an extra focus on countering as the Chinese athlete advances could really pay off for the former Bantamweight kingpin.

How Yadong Wins

Yadong is wildly fast and powerful for 135 pounds. Really, he’s a tremendous athlete all-around, seemingly impossible to bother with strikes. His defensive wrestling has come a long, long way, and Yadong’s offensive output has only grown more varied in recent years.

In this match up, Yadong wins by finding ways around Yan’s high guard. Petr Yan does a great job of keeping his forearms high and seeing shots coming, but this exposes other targets. From the first bell, Yadong should be taking his right hook to the ribs in hopes of setting up the overhand later. In addition, Yadong could see success by doubling up his left hook, targeting the body then head.

Similarly, Yadong wins this bout by cutting off the cage and trapping Yan along the fence rather than simply following him. Both men like to lead and bully their opponents, but Yan has the raw speed and power to command the center. If he’s consistent in putting Yan along the fence, opportunities to connect on heavy power punches will begin to open up.

Final Yan vs. Yadong Prediction

Momentum is a difficult factor to ignore.

Both of these men have the tools and skills to hurt the other and win the fight. The problem for Yan is that he’s in the midst of a downward spiral and is on the wrong side of 30. Don’t get me wrong: 31 years of age is not too old for a Bantamweight contender. Four losses in five fights doesn’t inspire hope that the best is still to come for the former champion, however.

Yadong, conversely, is clearly getting better with each performance. Cory Sandhagen was able to outwit Yadong with a masterful gameplan that still saw him absorb some brutal power shots, but otherwise, “The Kung Fu Kid” has been out-classing his opposition lately. He’s on a roll, and it doesn’t feel like that’s going to change until he’s fighting for the belt.

Powerful combinations from the Chinese fighter cost Yan his confidence, allowing Yadong to remain in the driver’s seat en route to the decision nod.

Prediction: Yadong victory via decision (-105)

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