Luque Vs. Buckley Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight sluggers Vicente Luque and Joaquin Buckley will go to war this weekend (Sat., March 30, 2024) at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey for UFC Atlantic City.

Luque still has something to prove after the Geoff Neal knockout loss that sent him to the hospital. He made a successful return to action last summer opposite Rafael dos Anjos, but the victory still saw Luque looking a bit uncomfortable in exchanges and instead relying on his grappling to earn the win.

Conversely, Buckley dropped to Welterweight last year and looks better than ever at his appropriate weight class. Now that he no longer has to leap into range to overcome silly height and reach differentials, Buckley is more successful in landing his power shots without getting countered on the way in.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Photo by Al Powers/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Luque vs. Buckley Betting Odds

• Vicente Luque victory: -110
• Joaquin Buckley victory: -110
• Over 2.5 rounds: +130
• Under 2.5 rounds: -166
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Buckley Wins

Buckley wins this fight by putting hands on Luque’s chin. He’s faster and builds combinations more effectively. That said, both men hit hard enough to finish the other, so there needs to be some tact in how Buckley approaches the exchanges.

Namely, Buckley has to feint often to disguise his entries. Sudden head-body-head combinations are his bread and butter, but they have to be set up with movement and false starts to avoid the Brazilian’s counters. I’d also like to see fewer blitzes in general from “New Mansa,” who can spend more time jabbing at and kicking his slower opponent at distance.

Some general pressure from Buckley would make sense. If he can back Luque towards the cage, takedowns will be more difficult to come by for the Brazilian. Plus, if he can feint out the nasty left hook/overhand counter of his opponent from that position, Buckley would be in great position to unload his combinations.

Photo by Al Powers/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Luque Wins

Luque is a well-rounded fighter with a penchant for finishing fights. If he can regain his peak form, Luque is still a relevant player at 170 lbs., because there simply wasn’t anyone better at snatching a stoppage out of absolute chaos.

Wrestling Buckley isn’t going to be as easy as wrestling a nearly 40 year old former Lightweight. It’s not a bad idea to take down Buckley, but the only way that happens for Luque is if he enters the fire first, forces Buckley to respect his power, then starts attacking the wrestling.

There are plenty of defensive openings in Buckley’s approach to striking. If Luque is still operating at a high-level, he should be able to press Buckley, draw out offense, then close the door with that nasty counter left hook that has clipped so many talented fighters.

Photo by Al Powers/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Luque vs. Buckley Prediction

It’s really hard to go against momentum.

Two years ago, this would’ve been a hilariously obvious Luque via knockout pick. Unfortunately, going into life-and-death brawls on a regular occasion seems to have taken quite a bit away from “The Silent Assassin.” He’s not as fast nor as durable, and his confidence in the pocket seems to have taken a hit as well.

Buckley, conversely, is nothing if not confident. He also hits extremely hard as a Welterweight, and his general approach to MMA has improved significantly in recent years. He’s getting smarter and better, whereas Luque has to prove that his career isn’t on the downward slide.

Really, it just feels like Buckley is going to land hard early, and Luque isn’t going to like it one bit. Since he doesn’t have the pure wrestling dominance to overwhelm Buckley’s defenses — Buckley was pretty hard to take down even at 185 pounds! — Luque is going to end up uncomfortable and stranded on his feet.

Buckley earns a spot in the rankings come Monday.

Prediction: Buckley victory (-110)