Sterling Vs. Kattar Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight veterans Aljamain Sterling and Calvin Kattar will throw down this weekend (Sat., April 13, 2024) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC 300.

Sterling exceeded expectations of many by winning Bantamweight gold and defending his throne three times before getting clipped by Sean O’Malley last year. Now, he looks to turn over a new leaf by jumping into the Featherweight mix at 34 years of age. Meanwhile, Kattar has been struggling. He’s lost two in a row via odd means: an exploded knee and controversial split-decision. The bottom line, however, is that Kattar hasn’t won a fight since January 2022 and is coming off a long injury layoff. The boxer really needs a win!

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Photo by Ed Mulholland/Getty Images

Sterling vs. Kattar Betting Odds

• Calvin Kattar victory: +135
• Calvin Kattar via TKO/KO/DQ: +500
• Calvin Kattar via submission: +3000
• Calvin Kattar via decision: +275
• Aljamain Sterling victory: -170
• Aljamain Sterling via TKO/KO/DQ: +900
• Aljamain Sterling via submission: +450
• Aljamain Sterling via decision: +120
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Sterling Wins

Sterling is one of the sport’s very best backpacks. He’s a tremendous wrestler with funky finishes and transitions, and he’s parlayed his wrestling background into a dangerous submission game. On the feet, Sterling is a high-volume kickboxer who throws punches-in-bunches.

Sterling at Featherweight is an unknown. On one hand, he was a massive Bantamweight who definitely will not be small for his new division. At the same time, physicality is such a huge factor in dragging opponents to the floor, and Sterling’s typical range advantage was fundamental to his success on the feet.

Up a division, Sterling has to make some changes. The takedowns are going to be more difficult to come by, so he has to make better use of his speed on the feet. In-and-out movement is going to be essential in landing without getting hit, and Sterling’s takedown entries have to come off that movement rather than pure strength.

A fast start might be wise too. Why let Kattar settle back into action after so long away?

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC

How Kattar Wins

Kattar is one of the division’s finest boxers. He has a really nasty jab that can dictate the course of a fight on its own, but his follow-up right hand is more than capable of putting opponents down for the count. Historically, he’s incredibly hard to take down as well.

I’d like to see a lot of pressure from Kattar here. Frankly, I think he should revive the Giga Chikadze game plan. Obviously, Chikadze and Sterling don’t fight anything like one another, but pressure and constant offense still feels like the best solution for Kattar. Why? Because getting outpointed by Sterling feels like a greater threat than being outwrestled.

Kattar is used to shucking off takedown attempts from bigger wrestlers like Zabit Magomedsharipov, Renato Moicano, and Ricardo Lamas — he can handle Sterling’s shot. The speed and volume of the former champion is a more serious worry, because Sterling knows how to puts up a ton of numbers at range.

If Kattar makes it a dogfight with his own combinations, calf kicks, and close distance elbows, however, he can try to bully the smaller man and force him into a different style of fight.

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Sterling vs. Kattar Prediction

There are a lot of unknowns in this match up. How will Sterling look at 145 pounds? How is Kattar going to move after his knee injury and extended layoff? We have two unknown quantities meeting in a high-profile and important fight that will serve as a crossroads bout for each.

To me, all those unknowns somewhat cancel each other out. I’m left feeling Calvin Kattar will still perform well and that Sterling will be reasonably effective as a Featherweight. In that case, the style match up seriously favors Kattar, who is just incredibly difficult to take down.

At Bantamweight, Sterling could use his height and reach to out-volume opponents (like Pedro Munhoz) when the takedowns didn’t materialize. Unless Kattar is severely rusty and flat, he’s too sharp and powerful of a striker to let that happen, particularly since Sterling’s punches have never carried much heat.

If Kattar tries to bully Sterling, what does “Funkmaster” do to stop him? I haven’t come up with a good answer.

Prediction: Calvin Kattar via decision (+275)

---

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 300 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 300: “Pereira vs. Hill” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.