Petrino Vs. Smith Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight standouts Vitor Petrino vs. Anthony Smith will go to war this weekend (Sat., May 4, 2024) inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for UFC 301.

Smith, 35, is having a rough go as of late. The former Light Heavyweight title challenger has lost three of his last four, getting stopped twice in that span. His split decision win over Ryan Spann is doing a lot of the work in preventing a free fall down the rankings, but it’s really been a while since “Lionheart” looked particularly sharp. Petrino, conversely, is an undefeated (11-0) up-and-comer. The 26-year-old Brazilian has scored four straight wins and two stoppages to jumpstart his UFC career, earning him a big step up in competition here.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Petrino Vs. Smith Betting Odds

• Vitor Petrino victory: -570
• Vitor Petrino via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Vitor Petrino via submission: TBD
• Vitor Petrino via decision: TBD
• Anthony Smith victory: +355
• Anthony Smith via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Anthony Smith via submission: TBD
• Anthony Smith via decision: TBD
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Petrino Wins

“Icao” isn’t doing anything wildly complicated in the cage. If you take a really athletic prospect and teach him good fundamentals, however, that’s a strong recipe for success. Petrino has come up quickly thanks to a well-rounded game and good physical attributes, namely his conditioning and strength.

He’s stopped seven foes via knockout.

The great thing about fighting a veteran like Smith is that the path to victory has already been written out and defined by a bunch of other fighters. Indeed, Smith doesn’t deal well with calf kicks or take downs. Petrino has the tools to attack his calf and wrestle him to the floor. Isn’t it nice when everything lines up so simply?

Really, the risk to Petrino in this fight is volume. He’s not the most active striker, and Smith can put up numbers. Takedowns and calf kicks are typically a great answer to activity, but a couple well-placed counter shots could also remove some of the wind from Smith’s sails.

How Smith Wins

Smith is an absolute veteran of the game. He’s been fighting forever, relying on grit, high-volume Muay Thai, and an underrated submission game to keep him near the top of the heap.

I alluded to his path above, but this is not an impossible match up for Smith. He perhaps cannot match Petrino in pure pop in his punches, but Smith has a more varied stand up arsenal. He has the technical kickboxing to win this bout on the feet, particularly if he’s able to extend the fight into the second and third.

It really comes down to defending low kicks and stopping takedowns. Smith has to get a bit lighter on that lead leg and be ready to check. If and when he’s dragged to the floor, “Lionheart” also has to do a better job of using his guard to stand rather than simply hang on and mitigate damage.

If Smith can make this a grueling fight that rewards technique rather than athleticism, he has a chance at scoring the upset.

Petrino Vs. Smith Prediction

I’m feeling like a broken record, but for the third time in three fights, the huge favorite is justified.

Is Petrino relatively unproven at this level? Definitely. He’s got some okay wins, but this is the first time he’ll be locked in the cage with a ranked veteran. There’s always the chance that he implodes when unable to impose his will like usual. However, he’s faced some adversity in previous fights and handled it well enough, so there’s no reason to believe he crumbles here.

Furthermore, Smith just hasn’t been fighting that well. He’s 35 and has been doing this for decades. Slowing down is reasonable, and it doesn’t help his chances that everyone knows his weaknesses.

One man is going up, and the other is going down. Without a strong reason, it’s hard to go against the current trends.

Prediction: Vitor Petrino victory (-570)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 301 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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