Buckley Vs. Ruziboev Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight sluggers Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev will go to war this weekend (Sat., May 11, 2024) inside Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Mo., for UFC St. Louis.

Buckley is taking a massive risk here. Fresh off the biggest win of his career over Vicente Luque (watch it), Buckley’s eagerness to jump right back into action and get booked in his home town has earned him a showdown against a dangerous and unranked foe. Ruziboev has been crushing his opposition at Middleweight and rides a massive win streak into this step up in competition. The 6’5” prospect has fought at Welterweight in the past, but it’s been a couple years, so that’s an interesting angle to this match up as well.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Buckley vs. Ruziboev Betting Odds

• Joaquin Buckley victory: -148
• Joaquin Buckley via TKO/KO/DQ: +140
• Joaquin Buckley via submission: +2000
• Joaquin Buckley via decision: +400
• Nursulton Ruziboev victory: +124
• Nursulton Ruziboev via TKO/KO/DQ: +330
• Nursulton Ruziboev via submission: +450
• Nursulton Ruziboev via decision: +650
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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How Buckley Wins

Joaquin Buckley is a combination puncher with serious power. He likes to explode forward with power shots, attacking the head and body. He’s definitely vulnerable to counters in the process, but Buckley mitigates that by feinting actively and scoring angles before charging. On the whole, his wrestling has come a long way too, particularly since dropping to 170 pounds.

This is hardly the first fight in which Buckley has really needed to close the distance. That was the whole story of his Middleweight career! The fortunate part here is that while Ruziboev may still have the length advantage that troubled Buckley up at 185-pounds, he’s going to be leaner and/or diminishing himself to make the weight.

Two factors are going to determine whether or not Buckley can get close to Ruziboev: feints and his ability to cut the cage. Frequent and convincing feints and false starts are going to be absolutely essential in preventing Ruziboev from picking him off on the way in with counters. If Buckley can use his movement to work Ruziboev towards the fence, that will help ensure his combinations actually land as well.

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How Ruziboev Wins

Ruziboev is still relatively new to UFC, having won just two fights inside the Octagon, but he’s a veteran with 46 total professional bouts to his credit. One way or another, the man is a finisher, having stopped 32 opponents before the final bell. Lately, he’s proven himself a sniper, timing his opponents with huge shots at distance.

And that sounds like a great plan here.

In his last fight, Ruziboev played the double threat of the right hand and right uppercut really well. That should work really well here, given the height and general range difference between the two men. If Ruziboev can establish his cross, he stands a fair shot at catching Buckley off-guard by going uppercut instead, which could create a massive collision.

To time Buckley’s advances, I’d like to see Ruziboev touching and pull. A quick jab could convince Buckley to charge, while the pull keeps Ruziboev at his preferred range, ready to counter.

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Buckley Vs. Ruziboev Prediction

It’s hard to have a lot of confidence here.

On one hand, Ruziboev appears to have a lot of the traits that give Buckley trouble. He could find similar success to Kevin Holland, who repeatedly dropped “New Mansa” by stranding him at distance and scoring counter punches on his way in (watch highlights). Buckley has refined his game since then, but the overall issue of closing forward on longer strikers will always exist for him.

Conversely, Ruziboev doesn’t have a lot of Octagon time. We haven’t really seen him tested, and to my eyes, he looks like too big for Welterweight. Even if he makes the weight, there’s concern that the 30-year-old will fatigue easily or be more prone to getting rocked.

Ultimately, Ruziboev is a fighter who tends to finish quickly or lose late. Buckley is a gamer, and at 170 pounds, I think he’ll be durable enough to survive a rough patch or two and get his game going as the fight wears on.

Prediction: Buckley via decision (+400)

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