Predictions! UFC Vegas 89 ‘Prelims’ Preview – Pt. 1

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is bringing more “Prelims” fights to ESPN+ this weekend (Sat., March 23, 2024) when UFC Vegas 89: “Namajunas vs. Ribas” returns to UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. MMAmania.com’s Patrick Stumberg kicks off the UFC Vegas 89 “Prelims” party with the first installment of a two-part undercard preview series below.

After falling short in her divisional debut against Manon Fiorot, former two-time Strawweight queenpin, Rose Namajunas, looks to claim her first Flyweight victory this weekend (Sat., March 23, 2024) when she battles veteran, Amanda Ribas, in UFC Vegas 89’s main event from inside UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The ESPN-streamed show also sees rising Heavyweight Karl Williams take on knockout artist, Justin Tafa, and Edmen Shahbazyan look to finally break through at A.J. Dobson’s expense.

UFC Vegas 89 features seven “Prelims” undercard bouts at time of writing, with Julia Polastri still awaiting a replacement foe. Let’s check out the first four …

145 lbs.: Jarno Errens vs. Steven Nguyen

Jarno Errens (13-5-1) joined UFC in 2022 in the midst of a 5-1-1 run, stepping up on short notice to battle local favorite William Gomis and ultimately settling for a majority decision loss. Eleven months later, he took on struggling veteran, Seung Woo Choi, who survived a second round knockdown to grit his way to a unanimous decision win.

He’s submitted five professional foes and knocked out three others.

The first Contender Series bid for Steven Nguyen (9-1) saw him knocked out in three by Aalon Cruz, while his second saw him defeat Theo Rlayang, but fail to claim a contract. He returned to the program once again two years later, this time smashing A.J. Cunningham to finally earn a spot in the Octagon.

His professional finishes are split 4:3 between knockouts and submissions.

If Nguyen’s bloodthirst against Cunningham was a sign of things to come and not just the byproduct of a hyper-aggressive opponent, the Featherweight division may have a problem on its hands. Killer instinct has long been the missing piece of his game — and with all due respect to Errens — he’s in for an awful night if that version shows up.

Even if he doesn’t and the high-volume, low-power decision artist who beat Rlayang makes an appearance, he’s much too technically savvy to lose this matchup on the feet. Errens couldn’t keep his foot on the gas or even hit a takedown on the very limited Choi, so I don’t expect much from him against a genuinely savvy boxer. In the end, volume and technique carry Nguyen to a one-sided win.

Prediction: Nguyen via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Montserrat Rendon vs. Dariya Zheleznyakova

Montserrat Rendon (6-0) went undefeated (2-0) in Combate Global and 1-0 in the short-lived Freedom Fight Night before controversially edging out Brittney Cloudy in her Invicta debut. “Monster” made her UFC debut one year later, surviving a rough start to claim her third split decision win in four bouts.

She stands one inch shorter than Zhelznyakova at 5’8.”

Dariya Zheleznyakova (8-1) capped off a perfect (7-0) professional start with a decision over Octagon veteran, Liana Jojua, only to fall to Mellisa Mullins her next time out. She returned to action five months later, returning to the win column by smashing Marie Loiseau in just 87 seconds.

That victory marked her fifth by knockout.

Rendon is an extraordinarily limited fighter who was fortunate enough to face an even more limited fighter in her debut. She won’t be so lucky here; Zheleznyakova is a genuinely fearsome boxer who figures to wreak havoc on Rendon’s poor defense and limited arsenal. Rendon’s only hope is to get on top and work her Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but despite Mullins pulling it off, that’s much easier said than done.

So long as Zheleznyakova doesn’t hand Rendon top control on a silver platter, she’ll sprawl-and-brawl to victory with little resistance. Indeed, she tears apart Rendon on the feet for either a sweep on the scorecards or violent finish.

Prediction: Zheleznyakova via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Igor Severino vs. Andre Lima

The fourth bout for Igor Severino (8-0) in the venerable Jungle Fight promotion saw him knockout Manoel Rodrigues for Flyweight gold at just 19 years of age. He joined Contender Series 13 months later, claiming a UFC contract by stopping Jhonata Silva midway through the second round.

He’s ended all of his professional bouts inside the distance, four each by knockout and submission.

Andre Lima (7-0) cut his teeth in Brazil’s Spartacus MMA before battering countryman, Igor Taylon, into submission under the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) banner. His fourth bout of 2023 took place on Contender Series, where he out-classed Rickson Zenidim to claim a UFC contract.

He gives up two inches of reach to da Silva.

Severino is downright sedate by Chute Boxe standards, employing a patient and technical approach despite his age and ultra-aggressive training partners. He might need some of teammate Joanderson Brito’s wildness here, however; Lima is the crisper striker of the two, but he’s also usually content to throw one or two strikes at a time. Severino’s best chance is to keep the pressure up like he did on Contender Series, and though this may be the optimist in me speaking, I think he can do it.

This is the best kind of prospect matchup, one that pits both men against an opponent equipped to exploit their most significant flaws. Severino has the higher ceiling for my money and should prove it here, narrowly out-working Lima to a competitive decision.

Prediction: Severino via unanimous decision

265 lbs.: Mohammed Usman vs. Mick Parkin

Mohammed Usman (11-2) took out Mitchell Sipe and Eduardo Perez in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 30 house before upsetting Zac Pauga with a one-punch knockout to claim victory in the tournament. “The Motor” is perfect (2-0 since), grinding his way past Junior Tafa and Jake Collier in the span of five months.

Four of his six professional finishes have come via submission.

Despite entering as a 2:1 underdog, Mick Parkin (8-0) needed less than two minutes to choke out Eduardo Neves on Contender Series and claim a UFC contract. His UFC tenure has seen him dispatch two other Contender Series graduates in Jamal Pogues and Caio Machado in the span of four months.

He steps in for Chris Barnett on less than two months’ notice.

I’m making an effort to not downplay Usman’s successes, but he doesn’t make it easy on me. Landing seven strikes on Tafa despite 12 minutes of top control and out-lasting an out-of-shape Jake Collier aren’t the stuff of highlight reels. Though Parkin failed to set the world on fire against a fighter in Machado whom I thought he’d torch, he doesn’t have any outstanding weaknesses for Usman to exploit and is the far better striker to boot.

Usman has a shot if Parkin’s conditioning isn’t up to snuff, and between that ugly Machado fight and the relatively short notice, that’s a very real possibility. Still, it seems far likelier that Parkin just shuts down his ugly takedowns, uses his size advantage to hold his own in the clinch, and boxes him up for a comfortable decision.

Prediction: Parkin via unanimous decision

Three more UFC Vegas 89 “Prelims” undercard bouts remain to preview and predict, including a potential Featherweight banger between Ricardo Ramos vs. Julian Erosa. Same time tomorrow, Maniacs.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 89 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN (simulcast on ESPN+) at 10 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 89: “Namajunas vs. Ribas” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.