UFC Vegas 89 Odds, Under Dogs And Best Bets!

Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC Vegas 89, which is set to hit UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, this weekend (Sat., March 23, 2024), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!

Long-time Flyweight contender, Amanda Ribas, looks to hold down the fort this weekend (Sat., March 23, 2024) in Las Vegas, Nevada, battling former two-time Strawweight queenpin, Rose Namajunas, as “Thug” seeks her first win at 125 pounds. UFC Vegas 89 will also showcase Karl Williams’ Heavyweight tussle with Justin Tafa, Edmen Shahbazyan’s attempt at redemption against A.J. Dobson, and what looks like a firecracker at 135 pounds pitting Payton Talbott vs. Cameron Saaiman.

With March Madness underway, now’s the time to build a gambling nest egg. Here’s how …

What Went Wrong at UFC Vegas 88?

Kennedy Nzechukwu

No argument here on the scorecards. In fact, 30-27 Ovince Saint-Preux would have been a better score than 29-28 Nzechukwu. I thought that I could at least trust “African Savage” to throw volume, but he seemed petrified to engage before that knockdown in the third woke him up.

Isaac Dulgarian

I do have an argument with these scorecards, which Andrew Richardson did a better job of articulating than I could have. I absolutely support the recent push to value damage over control time — you’ll recall my tantrum when Andre Muniz got the decision over Jun Yong Park. The issue is that Christian Rodriguez did not do meaningfully more damage than Dulgarian in the second round, and certainly not enough to override four minutes of dominance.

Ah, well. It was Ron McCarthy and Sal D’Amato, after all.

What Went Right?

Chad Anheliger, Jaqueline Amorim, Mike Davis, Jafel Filho and Gerald Meerschaert

As expected, though I’ll admit that Amorim successfully pulling guard surprised me a bit.

Chelsea Chandler

Damn, that woman does not like getting hit. Still, the takedowns did the trick.

Danny Silva

Honestly, I thought he lost that fight — Culibao’s movement was on point and Silva’s trademark volume was nowhere to be seen. That said, we take those.

UFC Vegas 89 Odds For The Under Card:

Trey Ogden (-155) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+130)

I’ve had all kinds of issues properly analyzing both men in the past, so leave this one alone.

Miles Johns (-148) vs. Cody Gibson (+124)

Small underdog bet on Gibson. He landed more significant strikes in his fight with Brad Katona than Johns has in his last three bouts combined. And considering Johns’ takedowns are too poor to put Gibson on his back, odds are GIbson can out-work him.

Steven Nguyen (-198) vs. Jarno Errens (+165)

Hammer that Nguyen line. We just watched Errens get torn up by a crude brawler in Seung Woo Choi and the 103 significant strikes Nguyen landed against A.J. Cunningham are nearly 50 percent more than Errens even attempted against Choi. Nguyen’s boxing is way too sharp for Errens to handle.

Darya Zheleznyakova (-218) vs. Montserrat Rendon (+180)

Zheleznyakova was at -142 as of last week — a line I would have put my mortgage on — but sadly, the bettors caught on to what an absolute mismatch this is. It’s still absolutely worth a look — Zheleznyakova is a legitimate prospect and Rendon is among the worst in the organization. Rendon’s going to get boxed to pieces.

Andre Lima (-180) vs. Igor Severino (+150)

Leave this one alone. Lima’s the crisper striker, but Severino is busier, and Severino being just 20 means he could have made significant strides since winning on Contender Series.

Mick Parkin (-142) vs. Mohammed Usman (+120)

Go nuts on Parkin. I’m not going to pretend he impressed against Caio Machado, but as a well-rounded Heavyweight with an actual gas tank, he’s leagues more dangerous to Usman than the three men “The Motor” defeated in the cage. Out-classing Jamal Pogues is infinitely more of an accomplishment than laying on Junior Tafa or becoming the ninth man to beat Jake Collier in the Octagon.

UFC Vegas 89 Odds For The Main Card:

Rose Namajunas (-245) vs. Amanda Ribas (+200)

Ribas is someone I’ve struggled to properly analyze before, but I really don’t see how Namajunas loses here. Ribas is too defensively porous to handle Namajunas on the feet and I don’t see her consistently taking down Namajunas or keeping her there.

Karl Williams (-180) vs. Justin Tafa (+150)

Williams has the wrestling to beat Tafa, but he also really underwhelmed me in what should have been an easy fight with Chase Sherman, so leave the Heavyweights to their nonsense.

Edmen Shahbazyan (-192) vs. A.J. Dobson (+160)

The mere fact that Dobson can wrestle makes him worth a flyer. We’ve seen Shahbazyan demolished on the mat four times in his last five fights.

Payton Talbott (-148) vs. Cameron Saaiman (+124)

Saaiman should not be the underdog here. Talbott’s whole thing is getting torched in the first round before taking over with volume once his opponent gasses out. Problem is, Saaiman also gets stronger as the fight goes and he hits significantly harder than anyone Talbott’s faced before. On top of that, Saaiman can wrestle if needed and Talbott spent more than five minutes underneath Nick Aguirre last time.

Talbott also has no range management skills, so that three-inch reach advantage won’t save him from Saaiman’s bombs.

Billy Quarantillo (-148) vs. Youssef Zalal (+124)

This is all Quarantillo. Zalal’s fundamental sin is his passivity and lack of finishing instinct, while Quarantillo never, ever stops attacking. Zalal’s takedowns are admittedly a threat, but so were Damon Jackson’s and Alexander Hernandez’s and Quarantillo still broke them down.

There’s also the fact that Zalal is taking this fight on short notice. Considering that even fully conditioned men wilt under Quarantillo’s pace, it’s not ending well for him.

Fernando Padilla (-162) vs. Luis Pajuelo (+136)

Put a smidge down on Pajuelo. “Corazon de Leon” is genuinely one of the most violent men to step foot in the Octagon in years and we just saw Padilla freeze up against the significantly-less dangerous Kyle Nelson.

UFC Vegas 89 Best Bets:

• Single bet — Cody Gibson: Bet $40 to make $49.60
• Single bet — Cameron Saaiman: Bet $60 to make $74.40
• Single bet — A.J. Dobson: Bet $40 to make $64
• Single bet — Luis Pajuelo: Bet $40 to make $54.40
• Single bet — Billy Quarantillo: Bet $60 to make $40.54
• Parlay — Steven Nguyen and Darya Zheleznyakova: Bet $80 to make $95.63
• Parlay — Mick Parkin and Rose Namajunas: Bet $60 to make $83.98

Well, at least there’re some fun prospects. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

Initial Investment For 2024: $600
Current Total: $730.33

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 89 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN (simulcast on ESPN+) at 10 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 89: “Namajunas vs. Ribas” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.